Split Ticket

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  • October House Temperature Check

    INTRODUCTION When Split Ticket released its last House Temperature Check at the end of August, 45 ratings changes were made in the Democrats’ favor. The shifts followed Pat Ryan’s victory over Republican frontrunner Marc Molinaro in New York’s 19th district, a culmination of Democratic overperformances in previous post-Dobbs special elections. While the Dobbs decision effectively… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • What’s Happening in South Dakota?

    South Dakota is normally a red state. And by red, this means very red. Donald Trump won the state by 30 points in 2016 and by 26 points in 2020. In past eras of the New Deal and of the 1980s Farm Crisis, Democrats were more competitive, but today, South Dakota’s heavily white and rural… Read More

    Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain

  • Could Michigan Democrats Break a 40 Year Losing Streak?

    For a state that has voted for the Democratic candidate in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections, Michigan has been relatively hostile to Democrats at the state legislative level. Thanks to a combination of favorable maps, political climates, organizational strength, and geography, Republicans have controlled the State Senate since 1982, and Democrats once… Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • World Report: Landtagswahl in Niedersachsen

    BACKGROUND On October 9th, voters will go to the polls to determine the composition of Niedersachsen’s Landtag (state parliament). This is the fifth Landtagswahl of 2022, with elections in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, Nordrhein-Westfalen, and Sachsen having occurred earlier this year. While these contests can provide valuable insight into how different Germans feel about their federal government,… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • World Report: Brazil Special

    BACKGROUND The last edition of World Report focused on the state of right-wing populist parties in Europe, concluding that while some have recently gained ground, their odds of long-term growth are contingent on differences in culture, institutions, and socioeconomic situations between the various countries. Italy, for instance, has proven far more cogent to the right’s… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • October Gubernatorial Ratings Changes

    Since our last Split Ticket gubernatorial ratings update, a lot has changed in the political landscape. Accordingly, we are making ratings changes to reflect the updated pictures in the national and statewide political environments as the election nears. Our current ratings are listed below. Democrats are favored to win 21 governorships, while Republicans are favored… Read More

    Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain

  • Indiana Realignment

    INTRODUCTION Back in July, Split Ticket started a new analysis series looking at realignments in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. To add some geographic diversity to the repertoire, this edition will move west to break down Indiana. The Hoosier State is an excellent case study for both the national trends of the last two decades and… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Using Fundamentals To Create An Adjusted Senate Forecast

    By this point in the cycle, the conventional wisdom is clear: “polling favors the Democrats, especially in statewide races, because of candidate quality. But fundamentals favor the Republicans“. This is a notion further exacerbated by the fact that polling badly missed by overestimating Democrats in the previous election cycle, leaving many with a case of… Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • District Rundown: Ohio’s 9th

    BACKGROUND In August, Split Ticket launched a new general election preview series called District Rundown. The first edition covered the pivotal special election in New York’s 19th district, which ultimately helped to shift national expectations regarding the national environment in a Democratic direction. Because the November elections are only 44 days away, pieces focusing on… Read More

    Harrison Lavelle