Split Ticket

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  • A Look At Two House “Sleepers”

    INTRODUCTION On Monday, Split Ticket released its second to last House ratings update showing Republicans favored to take back the majority in the chamber. Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated. A winner will be picked in each of those undecided races this Read More

    Harrison Lavelle
  • A Tale of 2 Committees: How outside money in AZ and OH is shaping the Senate races

    A Tale of 2 Committees: How outside money in AZ and OH is shaping the Senate races

    This year, the spending in two Senate campaigns–Arizona and Ohio–represent a departure from the conventional architecture of statewide campaigns. Republican candidates in these races have all but abandoned traditional fundraising avenues for a deluge of outside funding dollars unleashed by the notorious Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United 12 years ago. Since that decision, budgets Read More

    Clare Considine

  • World Report: Israeli Elections

    INTRODUCTION Israel is experiencing its fifth election cycle in three and a half years. The contest is once again centered around the character of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for bribery and breach of trust charges. He will try to gain a majority in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, after Read More

    Yarden Morad

  • House Temperature Check: One Week Out

    A Look At The Generic Ballot With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process that will be finished by Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • A Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator

    It’s increasingly well accepted at this point that Democrats are on track to have a fairly bad year, at least in terms of the national popular vote. Their president’s approval rating is at 44%, the out-party shows serious enthusiasm, and inflation is at 8%. None of these things generally point to a remotely competitive race Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • District Rundown: New Mexico’s 2nd

    BACKGROUND Welcome to the eighth edition of District Rundown, coming just a week and a half before election day. Last week’s publication touched on Indiana’s 1st district, an excellent late-breaking GOP pick-up opportunity currently rated TOSSUP for Split Ticket. Today’s analysis heads westward to one of the sunbelt’s most competitive congressional districts: New Mexico’s 2nd. Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?

    For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and his opponent, Evan McMullin, is Read More

    Armin Thomas, Jacob S. Rugh and Lakshya Jain

  • House Temperature Check: Two Weeks Out

    Introduction With the election less than two weeks away, Split Ticket is releasing the first of three House updates meant to prepare our board of competitive seats for the eventual elimination of Tossups and to identify seats that *could* be competitive in November. Before delving into the details, readers should remember that the Likely classification Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Empire State Shocker

    Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a heavily blue state, is not Read More

    Armin Thomas