Split Ticket

The national political climate has undergone a seismic shift since we polled the nation one month ago. On July 21st, the nation experienced a political earthquake when President Joe Biden, plagued by the fallout from his lackluster June debate performance, dropped out of the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.

At that time, Biden’s reelection picture looked increasingly grim, with former President Trump continuing to lead the polls in all of the nation’s swing states. Our first post-debate poll also suggested a “Biden deficit,” with Trump retaining a slim national advantage on the full ballot.

Prominent Democrats had privately pushed for Biden to withdraw from the race in the weeks leading up to his decision, citing his age and low approval ratings as potential stumbling blocks in his rematch against Trump. 

Since then, Democratic fortunes have rebounded. Running in Biden’s stead, Harris has reversed the gap in national polls. Democratic enthusiasm is also on the rise, with the campaign reporting a staggering $310 million fundraising haul in July’s final weeks — more than double the figure posted by the Trump campaign.

To get a sense of how Harris is performing in the Rust Belt, the region most likely to decide the presidency in November, we ran two polls in the region, across the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The first survey polled 1,571 likely voters, and was conducted between July 18 and 23rd (90% of responses were collected before Biden dropped out). The second surveyed 1,447 likely voters, and was conducted between July 29 and August 2nd. The sample was weighted to be representative of age, race, education, gender, and 2020 vote (you can find the targets here).

The first poll was nothing short of catastrophic for Democrats, in a region that they may well need to sweep to retain the White House. Biden won the three states surveyed by 1.6 points in 2020, but now trailed by 6 points in a six-way race. Harris, meanwhile, had an even rougher result, with Trump leading her by 7 points. In the head to head matchup, Biden trailed by 4, while Harris trailed by 5.

After Biden dropped out, however, Democratic fortunes reversed sharply. Our second poll, fielded two weeks later, finds Harris leading by 1 point in both the head-to-head and six-way matchups, with the region essentially reverting to its 2020 margins overnight.

This improvement is not actually concentrated among younger or non-white voters, as some had speculated. In fact, Harris’ gains with whites are significantly more pronounced than any pro-Democratic shift she sees with nonwhites, even though her vote share rises with both groups.

A big factor in Harris’ gains has been her base consolidation. At the time of Biden’s dropping out, Harris led Biden’s 2020 voters in a full-field matchup by a relatively paltry 80–6 margin. However, our latest survey finds her winning them 88-5, which is more similar to Trump’s 89-3 victory with his own 2020 voters. This does not explain the full scope of the shift, of course, but it does explain a large chunk.

Some focus will undoubtedly be given to Harris’ massively improved margins with 2020 nonvoters — while she lost them by a 28-39 margin in our first poll, she wins them by a 38-33 margin in the second one. This improvement is noteworthy and significant, of course, but it should be noted that this group is only 10% of the electorate, and they are not responsible for the majority of the gains that she has made. Yet it still marks a notable return to form for Democrats; this group has traditionally voted Democratic, and Harris’ new advantage marks a reversal from what was observed during much of this cycle with Biden at the top of the ticket.

Beyond the horserace, Harris has made serious gains in favorability ratings as well, primarily driven by gains with Independents and Democrats alike. In the first wave, her approval was at -12, well below Trump’s -5 rating. In our latest poll, however, Harris’s net favorability is only -1, compared with Trump’s -7.

Both Harris and Trump appear to be doing better than JD Vance, however, who saw his favorables crash from +1 to -10 in the second poll, with increased media scrutiny and a relentless barrage of Democratic attacks compounding a series of self-inflicted wounds.

While today’s poll focuses exclusively on the Rust Belt, Harris’ shift in favorables is still noteworthy. Her smooth campaign rollout has helped facilitate this honeymoon period, especially following the nadir Democrats hit during Biden’s last days on the ticket, and she appears to have capitalized extremely well on the stark contrast between them. If this narrow gap in the Rust Belt holds, it could give Harris an edge in some of the nation’s most important swing states this November.

The remainder of the presidential campaign will be shaped by voter perceptions of each nominee’s strengths and weaknesses, especially in the face of a flurry of negative ads. One of the primary attack lines used by Republicans against Harris has been that she is a “DEI candidate” who has only gotten where she has because of her gender and race. Overall, voters don’t seem to find this angle especially compelling: 47% of respondents disagree with the statement, while 44% agree to some extent. Given that the Republicans are already trailing in this region, a focus on this angle may be suboptimal.

The most potent attack on Harris happens to be related to Biden’s age. By a 10-point margin, voters think that she was complicit in covering up health issues plaguing President Biden. Should this attack line stick, it could pose some problems for Harris by undermining voter trust in her; however, it’s worth noting that Republicans haven’t really used this angle much yet, and every day that passes puts Biden’s health further in the rear-view mirror for voters, potentially decreasing the potency of the attack. In fact, Trump is now the elder candidate, and continued invocation of Biden’s age could shine a light on the 18-year gap between Trump and Harris.

There is a lingering economic vulnerability that Donald Trump seems to have here as well — despite the GOP’s improvement with union and working-class voters during the Trump era, a majority of our Rust Belt sample (51%) view Trump as a threat to Social Security and Medicare benefits, suggesting that this attack angle may be quite potent against him if leveraged properly. 

In another positive sign for Harris in the Rust Belt, a majority (51-43) say that Harris is not too extreme to be president. Conversely, a majority (53-44) say that Trump is too extreme to be president. This dichotomy mirrors the marked difference in favorability between Trump and Harris, and also suggests a softening of Harris’ image; as voters acquaint themselves with her staked stances, they appear to be treating her as more moderate than Trump, at least at this stage.

Notably, 49% of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — including 56% of college-educated voters, 49% of 2020 nonvoters, and 14% of Republicans — say Trump’s actions in the lead-up to and on January 6th are disqualifying, while 43% say they are not. Independents are split evenly, 43-43.

While Harris’s improved topline performance and higher favorability ratings have reshaped the state of the presidential race, the state of the Senate races in the Rust Belt seems to have remained the same. Going into our survey, Democrats had the advantage in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The down-ballot polling suggests that is still the case. When asked for their preferences in the Senate races, Rust Belt voters favor the named Democratic candidates by a combined 11 points, 51-40. 

The results are par for the course: Senate Republicans, especially in the Rust Belt, continue to underperform Trump. Assuming it holds up in November, this pattern could leave Republicans with only a bare Senate majority on an otherwise favorable map. Democratic candidates Bob Casey Jr., Tammy Baldwin, and Elissa Slotkin also have significant advantages over their opponents in terms of favorability.

The story is similar for the generic congressional ballot: as of now, Democrats lead Republicans, 47-43. This is a marked difference from the close presidential race and suggests that Democrats continue to maintain a slight, but noticeable advantage in down-ballot races. In the past, the phenomenon was flipped, with House Republicans outrunning Trump significantly in 2016 and 2020. 

In the race for the Senate, Independent voters prefer Democrats by comfortable margins, 46-32. The battle is a little closer in the House, but still suggests a slight Democratic edge, with a 38-34 lead among this group. This is perhaps a result of gaps in favorability and familiarity between each party’s candidates, as well as incumbency aiding Democrats in these three states.

Overall, the results suggest that Democrats have a chance to reclaim the narrative going into the final months of the election campaign. Harris has made important improvements in terms of her favorability ratings and has a narrow lead over Trump in the Rust Belt collectively. The presidential race once again appears to be a true tossup.