Category: House 2022

• Redistricting: What’s left?

  February 24, 2022

  Introduction As of this writing, six states have yet to complete their decennial redistricting processes. Of those six, two (OH & FL) happen to be some of the most electorally-significant states in the country. All told, there are nearly 50 Congressional districts remaining to be drawn. At least 1/3rd of… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• A look back at 2018 and what it means for 2022

  February 16, 2022

  Introduction With early voting in the first Congressional primary of the year already underway, the midterm campaign season is beginning to heat up in earnest. Due to President Biden’s sagging approval ratings, a strong Republican performance in the 2021 off-year elections, and entrenched historical precedent, general expectations for November point… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Redistricting and Partisan Balance: The New House Map Might Favor Democrats

  February 4, 2022

  For long-time watchers of cable news, it’s long been taken as a given that the House of Representatives has a semi-permanent Republican skew due to gerrymandering and geographical bias. Since the emergence of project REDMAP in 2010, in which Republicans crafted gerrymandered maps that drew several red-state Democrats out with… Read More

  Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle

• Redistricting in the Empire State

  January 31, 2022

  Introduction After a long wait, one of the nation’s most consequential gerrymanders debuted yesterday. The Empire State kept the political world waiting eagerly for months, with most serious analysts wondering just how aggressive the legislature would draw the lines for the upcoming decade. Along with Illinois, New York is the… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 2020 House Wins Above Replacement: Quantifying the Impacts of Incumbency and Spending

  January 12, 2022

  Editor’s Note: In December 2024, the Split Ticket WAR model received a major methodological upgrade that resulted in WAR score changes. The findings remain directionally the same, but the updated WAR scores are found here. A while back, we debuted a Wins-Above-Replacement model for the US Senate that tried to assess… Read More

  Lakshya Jain

• Impeachment Republicans: Where are they now?

  January 10, 2022

  Intro Recently, one of our readers suggested that we revisit the ten House Republicans who broke with their party to vote in favor of President Donald Trump’s second impeachment in 2021. Despite the possibility of electoral retribution, all of these members decided to place convictions above ambition by voting against… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• New Mexico, Land of Enchanting Politics

  December 31, 2021

  The politics of New Mexico reflect its position at the crossroads of multiple cultures, polities, and societies. Today, Split Ticket dives into past and present political developments in New Mexico to help deconstruct and analyze the state’s politics as we head into another election season.  The full report is available… Read More

  Armin Thomas

• Redistricting Bonanza: AZ, MI, and VA

  December 30, 2021

  Introduction The end of the Christmas reprieve left this week packed with fascinating redistricting developments. Before the holidays we reviewed California and New Jersey, both of which you can read about here. This piece will be focusing on the electoral implications posed by newly-enacted maps in Arizona, Michigan, and Virginia. So… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• NJ's Congressional Districts: A Deep Dive

  December 24, 2021

  New Jersey’s New Districts: A Deep Dive Introduction On Wednesday, the New Jersey Redistricting Commission adopted Congressional districts for the next decade. Tiebreaking commissioner John Wallace backed the Democratic plan, arguing that it was a fair move because Republicans drew the lines last cycle. The new boundaries benefit most of… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle