Harrison Lavelle
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Our Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Preview
On Tuesday, voters will head to the polls in Wisconsin to choose a new state Supreme Court justice between the Republican-aligned former Supreme Court justice Dan Kelly and the Democratic-aligned judge Janet Protasiewicz for a seat on the state’s Supreme Court. With control of the court on the line and… Read More
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Examining Ross Perot’s Impact on the 1992 Presidential Election Results
Many political scientists now recognize that Ross Perot’s independent candidacy did not spoil the 1992 presidential election for Republican President George H.W. Bush, yet few comprehensive quantitative analyses exist to prove such conventional wisdom correct. While exit polls are by no means perfect measures of electoral preferences, they are often… Read More
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Where Do Democrats Win White Voters?
For decades, column after column has been written on how diverse America has become. From John Judis and Ruy Teixeira’s 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, to the 2020 election postmortems, analysts have devoted hundreds of thousands of words to the diversification of the American electorate. These statements are not… Read More
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Examining California’s “Blueshift”
Many observers falsely assume that California’s electorate gets uniformly bluer between primary and general elections, giving Democratic candidates an edge in competitive races at the congressional and legislative levels. Reality is more complicated than any statewide average admits. Shifts don’t just vary based on political environments; they’re also affected by… Read More
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Our 2024 House Ratings
Republicans had an excellent chance to secure a comfortable House majority in 2022. The “out” party had gained seats in all but three midterms since 1862. Additionally, Democratic President Joe Biden suffered lower approval ratings throughout the cycle than Barack Obama had in November 2010, and only 23% of exit… Read More
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Can Southern Democrats Thread The Electoral Needle Again?
With the 2023 gubernatorial election cycle now kicking into full swing, Split Ticket is previewing and rating each election. We’ve already broken down the Kentucky gubernatorial race in a previous article, but today, we’ll be finishing off the set by discussing Mississippi and Louisiana. Mississippi If a poster child existed… Read More
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Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: Virginia
Today’s analysis offers preliminary ratings for the key House of Delegates and Senate races in Virginia. Last week, we gave our initial thoughts on fall legislative elections in New Jersey – where neither the Senate nor the Assembly is at risk of flipping to the Republicans. Keep an eye out… Read More
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Primary Recap: Wisconsin
Primary Recap Wisconsin voters decided the first round of this year’s nonpartisan state Supreme Court election on Tuesday. Judges Janet Protasiewicz (a liberal) and Dan Kelly (a conservative) will advance to a hotly-contested April general election in one of the nation’s top swing states. Although Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates have… Read More
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Another State Supreme Court Battle Brews In Wisconsin
Introduction Few states are as politically divided as Wisconsin, which voted for former President Trump in 2016 by a mere 23,000 votes, and for President Biden in 2020 by an even narrower 20-thousand vote margin. Federally, Wisconsin is one of just a handful of states that elected a bipartisan senate… Read More