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House Ratings Update: California
With California’s new maps recently being finalized by its redistricting commission, Split Ticket takes a look at the congressional districts that have been rated as competitive in 2022 by either us or the Cook Political Report. As a reminder, a “tossup” rating means a competitive race with no clear advantage to either side at the… Read more
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Trump: Whom has he endorsed?
Whom is Trump endorsing in 2022? Throughout his presidency, Trump’s endorsement held significant weight in Republican primaries. Prominent Governors like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp, for example, owe their careers to Trump’s influence peddling. His selections rarely fell short (i.e. Foster Friess), and he would often avoid mentioning them when they did. But paying… Read more
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Just how intertwined are Presidential and Senate results?
Introduction As any election observer will know, ‘split ticket’ voting is becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon in Presidential years. Fewer and fewer states opt to back different parties for President and Senate with each passing cycle, increasing cohesion between federal races. (Gubernatorial contests have more variance owing to their non-federalized nature, but are few and… Read more
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Welcome to America: The Beginning of Blue Virginia
Ahead of the 2006 election cycle, few doubted the advantage Republicans held in Virginia at the federal level. Democrats had not won the Old Dominion in a Presidential race since 1964, when LBJ romped to victory against conservative Senator Barry Goldwater. The GOP was generally successful in Senate races too. Senior Senator John Warner, a… Read more
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Op-Ed: Who Will Bell The Cat?
There once was a colony of mice that was being attacked by a marauding cat. As the cat began to eat more and more and the mice began shrinking in fear, the colony called an emergency meeting to address the situation. All the mice had some ideas on what to do, but nobody could settle… Read more
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Democratic Retirements: Who's Left?
Introduction Of the thirty Representatives not seeking reelection next year, 19 are Democrats. Eight of those 19 are running for higher office, but the rest of them are hopping on the retirement train for more traditional reasons. With Democrats widely expected to lose control of the House next year, most retirees are probably trying to… Read more
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Reassessing 2020 Senate Races With Data-Driven Assessments Of Candidate Quality
When the pre-election discourse around candidate quality pops up, my mind always goes to the famous Arthur Conan Doyle saying of how “it’s easy to be wise after the event”. It sums it up more accurately than any of us would care to admit — pre-election polling numbers, vibes, and anecdotal stories often color our… Read more
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The Crossover Kings: Don Bacon and Jared Golden
The Crossover Kings: Don Bacon and Jared Golden Introduction Crossover seats are districts that elect a Congressperson of a different party than their Presidential preference. Split-ticket voting is the stimulant behind these outcomes, so it makes sense that the increasing dominance of straight-ticket voting on the American political scene has reduced the number of districts… Read more
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Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts
Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts The Midwest is one of the most fascinating regions of the United States for any election analyst to study. Largely white and working class, it is a hardened American echelon that seems to have undergone more loss and struggle than success and revitalization. For… Read more
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