Split Ticket

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  • NE-01: Implications, or not?

    Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested it would be of interest.… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday

    Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream challengers who are perceived as… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/28 House Watchlist

    Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski Country’ like Aspen or Gunnison,… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Our Final 2022 Colorado Primary Preview

    On Tuesday, Colorado will hold its primary elections. At stake in the many contests is the statewide direction of both parties and their narrative heading into the midterm elections. Because of the many races on the ballot, we’ve decided to publish a separate article solely previewing Colorado, and we’ll lead off with the statewide races… Read more

    Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain

  • 6/21 Recap & June House Update

    Primary Recap Virginia In Virginia 2nd’s district, state Senator Jen Kiggans comfortably won the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote. She defeated three opponents running to her right, including Navy veteran Jarome Bell. Her strongest district-wide margin came from Virginia Beach County, where she took 63%. She performed worst in Accomack County, which Bell… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • 6/21 House Watchlist: VA, GA, & AL

    Introduction This week, six important Republican House primaries will be occurring in the south. Three of these races are runoffs happening in Georgia, with two of them (GA-06 & GA-10) acting as referendums on former President Trump’s endorsement power. Two more, in Virginia, will determine challengers to incumbent Democrats in marginal Biden seats (VA-02 &… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Temperature Check: Senate

    With just under five months to go until the November elections and primary season approximately halfway over, matchups for the Senate elections appear to be solidifying, and control of the chamber looks set to go down to the wire, with both parties having a credible case for optimism regarding the November outcome for the chamber.… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • Revisiting Q Scores

    A while back, Split Ticket introduced a new metric to quantify the relative conservatism of a political region, as defined by educational, racial, and political statistics. This was dubbed the Q-score, and it had the highest magnitude among populist white working-class areas that used to be swingy or Democratic, such as southern Ohio, eastern Kentucky,… Read more

    Armin Thomas

  • Primary Round-Up: 6/14

    Texas-34 (GOP Success in South Texas) Last night concluded the closely-watched special election campaign in Texas-34, a seat that runs north along the Gulf Coast from the heart of the Rio Grande Valley to the greater San Antonio area. Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democratic attorney Dan Sanchez 51-43.3%, avoiding a runoff in this Biden +4… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • House Watchlist 6/14

    Introduction This Tuesday, a series of hotly-contested House primaries will be occurring in Nevada and South Carolina. In addition to the latest nomination news, Split Ticket will provide updates on the House special elections in AK-AL and TX-34. To find out more about this year’s primary cycle, check out our watchlist and 2022 ratings courtesy… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • How Important Is Presidential Lean In Midterm Years?

    Introduction Previous Split Ticket research indicates that a district’s presidential lean is the single greatest predictor of its House result in a presidential year. Polarization has only reinforced this conclusion, causing the total number of “crossover” seats to shrink significantly over the last two decades. (Read more here) Since there is no sign that this… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • House Round-up: 6/8

    Introduction Last night had its fair share of surprises, from runoffs in Mississippi to pathbreaking results in California. Since voters in 7 new states have chosen nominees for the House of Representatives, Split Ticket feels compelled to break down the key results as they currently stand. A series of important ratings changes will accompany this… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle