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  • Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts

    Changing Times, Changing Coalitions: A Look at Six Midwestern Congressional Districts The Midwest is one of the most fascinating regions of the United States for any election analyst to study. Largely white and working class, it is a hardened American echelon that seems to have undergone more loss and struggle than success and revitalization. For… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • An Old Coalition Mix-up in Illinois

    The Opening The 1998 gubernatorial race in the state of Illinois was a contest unlike any other the state, or the nation, has seen recently. Featuring incumbent Secretary of State George Ryan (REP), and 19th district Rep. Glenn Poshard (DEM), the policies, campaigning styles, and coalitions of the race are quite fascinating, and represent a… Read more

    Armin Thomas

  • The Thanksgiving Special: Retirement Musings (Part 1)

      Part 1 – How are the latest replacement primaries shaping up? Most of these primaries are still in limbo because of redistricting, so we’ll largely be focusing on the candidates. Our reporting will be most salient in seats with solidified boundaries. This part of the series will focus on potential successors in open seats.… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The Third Split: An altered look at the 2020 House races

      Preface Each Wednesday we’ll be releasing hypothetical newsletters making use of deeper analysis. We’ve got some pretty amazing model-based pieces planned for the next few weeks, but today we’ll be starting gingerly with a simple what if question: what would the 2020 House Elections have looked like under an R+7 environment. Methods Disclaimer This… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The First Split (11/22)

    Welcome to the first split! Split Ticket will be sending out three different newsletters each week to keep up with our commitment to covering a wide variety of content. Each will have a specific theme, with subject matter alternating by the week. Here’s the plan: Mondays (Campaign news and general updates) Wednesday (A deep-dive analytical… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Leahy out, Welch in

      A Senatorial Titan Vermont’s elder statesman Patrick Leahy announced his retirement last week. The Democratic Senator was first elected in 1974 in the wake of Watergate. Leahy is the last Senate ‘Watergate Baby’. (The term only applies to Democrats, so Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley is excluded even though he won his House seat in 1974) Leahy is the only… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle