Split Ticket

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  • House Watchlist (8/23)

    HOT RACES (NEW YORK, FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA) Florida’s 7th district Florida’s new 7th district (Trump +5.5) is one of the GOP’s top post-redistricting targets. The 2012 iteration of the seat (Biden +10) was greatly altered by state Republicans, who exchanged Democratic turf in Orange County, including the whiter sections of eastern Orlando, for rightward-trending portions of Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • District Rundown: New York’s 19th Special

    Background With the November general elections just a few months away, Split Ticket decided to launch a new article series called District Rundown. Editions of rundown will be released on a weekly basis until November 8th, focusing on the competitive districts that will be most important to determining House control. Because it will be used Read More

    Harrison Lavelle and Armin Thomas

  • Florida, Under The Hood

    No state inspires emotionally-charged and heartbreak-filled political discourse quite like Florida does. Democrats have lost every top-ticket race since 2012, often by the thinnest of margins, and in 2020, the vaunted lurch rightward of virtually every major demographic in the state (apart from select groups of suburban college-educated whites) shocked observers. Soon after, Republicans finally Read More

    Armin Thomas

  • Primary Recap 8/16

    Alaska Senate In a surprisingly strong showing, incumbent GOP senator Lisa Murkowski ended up with a lead of over four points on Trump-endorsed challenger Kelly Tshibaka, which is only projected to grow once all ballots are tabulated. More tellingly, Murkowski and the Democratic candidates combined for 52 percent of the vote, which bodes very well Read More

    Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain

  • Electability, Politics, and Veterans’ Affairs: An Interview with Jason Kander (Part 2)

    This is the second part of a two-part interview with former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, who Split Ticket got the chance to interview. Kander was also the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Missouri Senate election in 2016 and came within two points of defeating incumbent Republican Roy Blunt. In the second part of Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Electoral Reform and National Service: An Interview With Jason Kander (Part 1)

    This is the first of a two-part interview with former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, who Split Ticket got the chance to interview. Kander was also the Democratic Party’s nominee for the Missouri Senate election in 2016 and came within two points of defeating incumbent Republican Roy Blunt. In the first part of this Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • 8/16 Primary Watchlist

    Alaska Senate In an eerily similar situation to 2010, incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski, one of the leaders of the GOP’s moderate wing, will once again be facing a serious challenge from her right flank. This time, Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka is attempting to unseat her, and if this was the old system with two-party primaries, Read More

    Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain

  • Boston: Melting Pot or Powder Keg?

    The political dynamics in the city of Boston have always been highly dependent on ethnocultural coalitions; Irish vs. English, Catholics vs. Protestants, White vs. Nonwhite. The Hub has been home to countless waves of peoples who were making their first stop in America. But often, increased diversity disrupts a delicate balance struck between Boston’s feuding Read More

    Armin Thomas

  • PA Realignment

    Introduction Split Ticket recently started a new series studying realignments in specific states. Our first article, touching on New Jersey, determined that traditional down ballot partisan leans continue to weather opposing national trends, albeit to a lesser degree than in years past. This fundamental conclusion regarding “down ballot lag” is more or less applicable to Read More

    Harrison Lavelle