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Election Review: Ohio
Introduction With 2022 in the rearview mirror, we at Split Ticket decided to start a new series called Election Review devoted to analyzing significant House races on a state by state basis. In addition to our previous Against The Trend publications, which focused on crossover voting driven by down-ballot lag, Election Review will utilize our… Read More
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Looking Back at Utah’s 2022 Senate Race
One of the most surprising results of the 2022 midterms was the relatively close Utah Senate race. The ruby-red state posted a 10.4-point win for incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee over conservative independent Evan McMullin — a remarkable underperformance by Lee. By comparison, the comparatively more competitive state of Florida voted for Sen. Marco Rubio,… Read More
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Our 2022 Senate Wins Above Replacement Model
Editor’s Note: In December 2024, the Split Ticket WAR model received a major methodological upgrade that resulted in WAR score changes. The findings remain directionally the same, but the updated WAR scores are found here. During the course of our 2022 postmortems, we at Split Ticket have already quantified the importance of candidate quality in the… Read More
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Electability, Ideology, and the 2022 Midterms
At Split Ticket, we have repeatedly proven that candidate-driven effects fundamentally impact election results, but we have not completely addressed a more controversial question: do ideologically-extreme candidates pay electoral penalties? Previous analysis on the correlation between moderation and overperformance suggests that they do. But it’s worth looking at how this holds up in 2022. Note:… Read More
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World Report: Brazil and Peru
Introduction The 2022 midterms may be over, but Split Ticket’s foreign coverage continues. Today’s publication is the first of a two-part World Report release breaking down both the biggest global developments since our previous installment and 2023’s important electoral contests. What’d We Miss? Brazil If political squabbling doesn’t seem tumultuous enough in the United States,… Read More
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Introducing Split Ticket’s Congressional Voting Index (CVI)
INTRODUCTION Split Ticket’s new Congressional Voting Index (CVI) gauges each House district’s partisan lean. In contrast to counterparts like Cook PVI, our CVI uses a unique methodology that makes it more representative of the current electoral climate. This tool will improve our 2024 House ratings by shedding light on how seats may be expected to… Read More
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Cutting Through Chaos: Electing the Next Speaker of the House
INTRODUCTION Yesterday, the 118th Congress convened in Washington D.C. to conduct inaugural proceedings. Many of the 434 members-elect of the House of Representatives* expected normal starts to their new terms. They would first elect a speaker, then agree to rules and receive codified committee assignments. But, as last-minute squabbling over House Republicans’ de facto speaker… Read More
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Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model
Editor’s Note: In December 2024, the Split Ticket WAR model received a major methodological upgrade that resulted in WAR score changes. The findings remain directionally the same, but the updated WAR scores are found here. Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among other things, the new 2022… Read More
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Do Campaign Teams Matter? Republicans’ 2022 Enthusiasm Gap in Staffing Numbers
Senate Republicans didn’t crack the number they needed to achieve a majority and are still grappling with why. Sure, the post-election conventional wisdom has yielded a narrow spectrum of responses – anywhere from “bad candidate recruitment” to “blame Trump.” But how can we account for the outcomes in these races? One key element: Grassroots support… Read More
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