Generally speaking, the Democrats were clear winners in November’s off-year elections. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear comfortably secured reelection, Brandon Presley came closer to winning in Mississippi than any Democrat in a generation, and Republicans lost control of Virginia’s House of Delegates. Democrats had much to be proud of in New Jersey too.
They netted six seats in the General Assembly, expanding their majority from 46–34 to 52–28; five incumbent Republicans were defeated, including Ned Thompson, who lost to Lakewood Democrat Avi Schnall in heavily-Republican LD30. In the Senate, Democrats retained their 25–15 majority after avenging Steve Sweeney’s 2021 loss to Ed Durr in LD03.
The extent of Democratic success becomes clearer when you consider Republican down-ballot strength in New Jersey’s off-year elections. Most Senate Republicans easily outperformed Trump, but very few of them managed to exceed Jack Ciatarelli’s 2021 gubernatorial baseline. One of the only exceptions was Senator Jon Bramnick, and he did so despite there being a much bluer statewide environment than in 2021.
Bramnick, who has served in the state legislature since 2003, was first elected to the Senate in 2021. His 21st legislative district comprises some of the Garden State’s most affluent and well-educated towns. Though it votes Democratic comfortably in federal elections, it used to be much redder and remains more Republican in down-ballot contests.
The 2011 version of the seat voted for Biden by eighteen points and Murphy by two points. Bramnick won the same district by seven, outrunning Ciattarelli by nine points. His moderate record as an assemblyman, coupled with an excellent constituent service operation, allowed him to appeal to enough Democratic and unaffiliated voters to exceed LD21’s down-ballot baseline.
Going into 2023, Bramnick’s seat got redder in redistricting. The new version exchanged less favorable portions of Union County for new turf in Somerset, and would have voted for Ciattarelli by just under half a percentage point. With a redder district, a less well-known opponent, and an overwhelming financial advantage, most observers expected a comfortable Bramnick victory.
He ended up meeting his 2021 margin, winning by seven points. That performance might not seem as impressive as his initial victory given the favorable redistricting changes, but it stands out considering the markedly bluer statewide environment in 2023. Bramnick and his assembly colleagues held their ground in a post-Dobbs election in this district without a Republican gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket.
Moderate Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia have long survived difficult elections in Democratic seats trending against them, not least because their districts are redder down-ballot. Traditional voting patterns, accentuated by lower turnout in off-year elections, also tend to deter top-notch and well-heeled challengers from running in the first place.
But it would be wrong to ignore the importance of messaging in slowing the bleeding in suburban seats like LD21. In 2023, at least, Bramnick’s support for abortion rights and his moderate approach to wedge issues like gun control likely helped him retain support from suburban women voters who have soured on the national GOP since Dobbs. The distance he put between himself and Trump had a similar effect.
Perhaps most importantly, though, Bramnick was able to rely on a reputation cultivated by two decades’ worth of excellent constituent service. As seminal as controversial topics like abortion may be to the national political climate, issues like overdevelopment, taxation, and unemployment benefits are often more important to persuadable voters at the local level. For local political positions, candidates can often find an edge by hammering in their stances on topics untouched by candidates of the same party running in federal races.
By disconnecting from Trump, treading the pro-choice line on abortion, and refocusing the 2023 campaign on parochial issues, Bramnick managed to avoid the fate that many of his suburban Republican counterparts have faced elsewhere since 2022.
If anything, though, Republican success was even more impressive further down the ballot. The table above includes results from three of the “train station” towns in LD21; all of them are bluer than the district as a whole but have similar demographic make-ups and historical down ballot voting patterns. 2023 marked the first time that Republicans swept all of the local offices up for election in each town since the end of the Obama era.
*See footnotes for data information
As the table suggests, these strong performances cannot just be attributed to lower off-year turnout. Voter participation decreased only slightly in all three towns relative to 2022, yet local Republican candidates won convincingly. Even considering down ballot lag, which can be quite powerful, it’s hard to say these results aren’t at all impressive.
In Millburn, which used to be part of LD21, Republicans kept Trump-era council races competitive despite the town’s presidential lean, but they never once managed to win — let alone by 28 points. While an admittedly unique case, this year’s Republican campaign in Millburn does show how to make inroads (at least at the local level) with suburban voters who ordinarily wouldn’t support the GOP.
First, Republicans Ben Stoller and Frank Saccomandi branded themselves not as the GOP slate for town committee, but as the Millburn ticket — a successful attempt to cast their candidacies in a non-partisan light. Like Bramnick, they also avoided discussion of controversial culture war topics, focusing instead on consensus issues like combating overdevelopment. As a result, Stoller and Saccomandi picked up endorsements from former and current Democratic town officials. Both candidates ultimately achieved comfortable victories.
But are these results really that significant? After all, it’s never advisable to read too much into one election, especially local races in historically Republican towns; simply focusing on housing and avoiding hot-button issues is also a lot easier to accomplish in non-federal races.
While there’s undoubtedly truth to both of those assertions, the fact that local Republicans across LD21 managed to persuade a number of independents and Democrats, many of them reliable Biden supporters, to support them shows that the GOP can still win in these sort of blue suburbs — even after Dobbs. If Republicans ran a candidate like Bramnick in New Jersey’s 7th district, I have no doubt that their chances of holding the seat in 2024 would be higher.
Ultimately, when it comes to the electoral benefits of proper messaging and trustworthy candidates, LD21 should be considered something of a blueprint for Republican candidates at all levels running for office in similar districts.
*Total 2023 turnout in Millburn estimated
*Totals in Westfield reflect combined tallies across all four wards
*Totals in Summit reflect the tally for the at-large council seat
My name is Harrison Lavelle and I am a co-founder and partner at Split Ticket. I write about a variety of electoral topics and handle our Datawrapper visuals.
Contact me at @HWLavelleMaps or harrison@splitticket.org