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• Our 2024 House Ratings

  

  Republicans had an excellent chance to secure a comfortable House majority in 2022. The “out” party had gained seats in all but three midterms since 1862. Additionally, Democratic President Joe Biden suffered lower approval ratings throughout the cycle than Barack Obama had in November 2010, and only 23% of exit poll respondents rated the nation’s…

  Harrison Lavelle

  March 8, 2023

• Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: Virginia

  

  Today’s analysis offers preliminary ratings for the key House of Delegates and Senate races in Virginia. Last week, we gave our initial thoughts on fall legislative elections in New Jersey – where neither the Senate nor the Assembly is at risk of flipping to the Republicans. Keep an eye out for our 2023 gubernatorial ratings…

  Harrison Lavelle

  February 28, 2023

• Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes

  Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore like Bel Air (Harford). Harris…

  Harrison Lavelle

  July 19, 2022

• 6/28 House Watchlist

  Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski Country’ like Aspen or Gunnison,…

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 28, 2022

• Our Final 2022 Colorado Primary Preview

  On Tuesday, Colorado will hold its primary elections. At stake in the many contests is the statewide direction of both parties and their narrative heading into the midterm elections. Because of the many races on the ballot, we’ve decided to publish a separate article solely previewing Colorado, and we’ll lead off with the statewide races…

  Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain

  June 27, 2022

• 6/21 Recap & June House Update

  Primary Recap Virginia In Virginia 2nd’s district, state Senator Jen Kiggans comfortably won the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote. She defeated three opponents running to her right, including Navy veteran Jarome Bell. Her strongest district-wide margin came from Virginia Beach County, where she took 63%. She performed worst in Accomack County, which Bell…

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 24, 2022

• House Round-up: 6/8

  Introduction Last night had its fair share of surprises, from runoffs in Mississippi to pathbreaking results in California. Since voters in 7 new states have chosen nominees for the House of Representatives, Split Ticket feels compelled to break down the key results as they currently stand. A series of important ratings changes will accompany this…

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 8, 2022

• 6/7 House Watchlist

  Intro & CA Note Primaries will be occurring in seven different states today. Split Ticket covered California in a separate piece last week, so this write-up will be solely devoted to House contests in New Jersey and a handful of other states. Compared to past dates on the electoral calendar, June 7th is also noticeably…

  Harrison Lavelle

  June 7, 2022