Category: Senate 2022
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Our 2022 Senate Wins Above Replacement Model
Editor’s Note: In December 2024, the Split Ticket WAR model received a major methodological upgrade that resulted in WAR score changes. The findings remain directionally the same, but the updated WAR scores are found here. During the course of our 2022 postmortems, we at Split Ticket have already quantified the importance… Read More
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Do Campaign Teams Matter? Republicans’ 2022 Enthusiasm Gap in Staffing Numbers
Senate Republicans didn’t crack the number they needed to achieve a majority and are still grappling with why. Sure, the post-election conventional wisdom has yielded a narrow spectrum of responses – anywhere from “bad candidate recruitment” to “blame Trump.” But how can we account for the outcomes in these races?… Read More
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Georgia Senate Runoff Preview
On Tuesday, Georgia voters will go to the polls for the Senate runoff election, which was triggered by no candidate getting an outright majority in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock will face off against former UGA football star Herschel Walker, and with Warnock having led Walker… Read More
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Struggling to Attract Single Women? So are Republicans
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, the narrative of the 2022 midterms had already cemented: Republicans’ celebration of a promised majority had turned to dejection and finger-pointing. There will be no shortage of post-hoc analysis for this “asterisk” election, but with more data available, there’s one voting block bucking… Read More
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Candidate Quality Cost Statewide Republicans In 2022
Heading into the election, several national indicators pointed to the Republican Party likely having a fairly good night. Biden’s approval sat at 44%, the generic ballot sat at R+1.1, and inflation was still around 8%, with gas prices more expensive than they were during the red wave-esque environment of November… Read More
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A Final Note
With the 2022 election cycle coming to a close, we’ve made our final picks for Senate, House, and Governor. In line with historical midterm precedent, the predictions suggest that tonight’s results will benefit Republicans — though not overwhelmingly, as we’ll discuss later on. Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50… Read More
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Our Final Senate Ratings
For the longest time, one of the biggest incongruities about this cycle was the divergence between national polling, which showed a close national environment, and the state polling, which showed a Democratic blowout in the battlegrounds. Our initial temptation was to explain this away through candidate quality, given that in… Read More
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A Tale of 2 Committees: How outside money in AZ and OH is shaping the Senate races
This year, the spending in two Senate campaigns–Arizona and Ohio–represent a departure from the conventional architecture of statewide campaigns. Republican candidates in these races have all but abandoned traditional fundraising avenues for a deluge of outside funding dollars unleashed by the notorious Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United 12 years… Read More
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Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?
For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and… Read More