Category: Redistricting

• Texas Republicans’ Oldest Trick In The Book

  

  July 15, 2025

  Democrats’ political woes just got darker. Recently, the Texas Legislature reconvened to reconfigure Democratic-leaning congressional districts to elect Republicans. The New York Times reports that anywhere between 2 and 5 Democratic-held seats in Texas are vulnerable, and President Donald Trump has instructed the legislature to target 5 Democratic incumbents. Considering… Read More

  Armin Thomas

• How the 2024 House Elections Could Decide the Presidency

  

  August 21, 2023

  Imagine that it’s November 6th, 2024 and Americans nationwide are waking up to very unsettling news: neither candidate has hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, meaning the president must be chosen by the House of Representatives in a contingent election the following year. For most voters,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain

• Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes

  July 19, 2022

  Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Our Final 2022 Colorado Primary Preview

  June 27, 2022

  On Tuesday, Colorado will hold its primary elections. At stake in the many contests is the statewide direction of both parties and their narrative heading into the midterm elections. Because of the many races on the ballot, we’ve decided to publish a separate article solely previewing Colorado, and we’ll lead… Read More

  Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain

• 6/7 House Watchlist

  June 7, 2022

  Intro & CA Note Primaries will be occurring in seven different states today. Split Ticket covered California in a separate piece last week, so this write-up will be solely devoted to House contests in New Jersey and a handful of other states. Compared to past dates on the electoral calendar,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• NY Ratings: Part II

  May 23, 2022

  Introduction In January, we wrote that the Empire State’s endearingly-named ‘Hochulmander’ would join Illinois as a critical part of the national Democratic redistricting phalanx. There was little expectation of a successful Republican appeal at that time. In April, the State Court of Appeals struck down the gerrymander. Neutral appointee Jonathan… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 5/10 Primary Roundup

  May 13, 2022

  Nebraska Governor Last Tuesday, businessman Jim Pillen secured Nebraska’s Republican gubernatorial nomination, beating Trump-endorsed rival Charles Herbster by just over three percent. This is the first blemish on Trump’s endorsement record, as the Nebraska establishment largely lined up behind Pillen. Herbster’s loss could be attributed to voters being more selective… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle and Leon Sit

• House Updates: Florida

  April 29, 2022

  Background The latest redistricting cycle in the Sunshine State was like a wild carnival ride the whole way through. From the beginning, outside observers expected the Republican-run state government to press its advantage by crafting an effective gerrymander. But the legislature’s will to draw a 17 or 18 seat GOP… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Ohio: Districts 1, 9, & 13

  April 7, 2022

  Introduction After months of uncertain judicial wrangling and vitriolic national discourse, the Buckeye State’s decennial redistricting process finally seems complete. Back in 2021, conventional wisdom held that Ohio’s solidified Republican trifecta would adopt a GOP gerrymander just as effective as it did in 2012. Following months of discourse, pundit world… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle