Harrison Lavelle
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Cutting Through Chaos: Electing the Next Speaker of the House
INTRODUCTION Yesterday, the 118th Congress convened in Washington D.C. to conduct inaugural proceedings. Many of the 434 members-elect of the House of Representatives* expected normal starts to their new terms. They would first elect a speaker, then agree to rules and receive codified committee assignments. But, as last-minute squabbling over… Read More
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Our 2022 House Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model
Editor’s Note: In December 2024, the Split Ticket WAR model received a major methodological upgrade that resulted in WAR score changes. The findings remain directionally the same, but the updated WAR scores are found here. Our 2020 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model showed that spending still matters in American politics. Among… Read More
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Against The Trend: California
Introduction To celebrate the holiday season, Split Ticket’s Against The Trend series is heading west to California. Rich both in geographic wonders and cultural diversity, the country’s most populated state dominates the 435-seat House of Representatives. Though the Golden State recently lost a seat in decennial reapportionment, its 52-member Congressional… Read More
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Estimating 2022’s Generic Ballot
INTRODUCTION At the beginning of the 2022 cycle, one political truism benefited Republicans above all else: the out party had gained ground in all but three midterms since 1862. During that time frame, the House of Representatives had changed hands in 13 such cycles, with the presidential party often suffering… Read More
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Georgia Senate Runoff Preview
On Tuesday, Georgia voters will go to the polls for the Senate runoff election, which was triggered by no candidate getting an outright majority in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock will face off against former UGA football star Herschel Walker, and with Warnock having led Walker… Read More
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Against The Trend: New England
Introduction Welcome to the third edition of Against The Trend, a new series devoted to regional analyses of the 2022 House election results. After covering New York and Texas, today’s publication examines how Split Ticket’s ratings held up in New England — one of the country’s crossover voting havens. There’s… Read More
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2022’s Crossover Seats: An Analysis
Introduction Author’s Note: Results current as of this writing. Last January, Split Ticket published an analytical piece examining ticket-splitting in the 2020 House elections. The write-up primarily addressed “crossover seats,” or districts that supported different parties for President and Congress. Between 2008 and 2020, the number of those seats declined… Read More
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Against The Trend: New York
Introduction Welcome to the second edition of Against The Trend, Split Ticket’s new regional electoral analysis series. Today’s publication will examine the 2022 House election results in New York through the lens of the Empire State’s gubernatorial race. Just like in South Texas, which we covered in our previous installment,… Read More