Harrison Lavelle

• Impeachment Republicans: Where are they now?

  January 10, 2022

  Intro Recently, one of our readers suggested that we revisit the ten House Republicans who broke with their party to vote in favor of President Donald Trump’s second impeachment in 2021. Despite the possibility of electoral retribution, all of these members decided to place convictions above ambition by voting against… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Crossover Voting: 2020

  January 5, 2022

  Intro When we last looked at different partisan outcomes resulting from split-ticket voting, the Senate was our focus. To yield a worthwhile R2 value we compared Republican vote share between Presidential and Senate candidates. (Analyzing margin alone can be deceiving) The mathematical conclusion derived from our findings was clear: top-line… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Redistricting Bonanza: AZ, MI, and VA

  December 30, 2021

  Introduction The end of the Christmas reprieve left this week packed with fascinating redistricting developments. Before the holidays we reviewed California and New Jersey, both of which you can read about here. This piece will be focusing on the electoral implications posed by newly-enacted maps in Arizona, Michigan, and Virginia. So… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• NJ's Congressional Districts: A Deep Dive

  December 24, 2021

  New Jersey’s New Districts: A Deep Dive Introduction On Wednesday, the New Jersey Redistricting Commission adopted Congressional districts for the next decade. Tiebreaking commissioner John Wallace backed the Democratic plan, arguing that it was a fair move because Republicans drew the lines last cycle. The new boundaries benefit most of… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Trump: Whom has he endorsed?

  December 20, 2021

  Whom is Trump endorsing in 2022?   Throughout his presidency, Trump’s endorsement held significant weight in Republican primaries. Prominent Governors like Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp, for example, owe their careers to Trump’s influence peddling. His selections rarely fell short (i.e. Foster Friess), and he would often avoid mentioning them… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Just how intertwined are Presidential and Senate results?

  December 18, 2021

  Introduction As any election observer will know, ‘split ticket’ voting is becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon in Presidential years. Fewer and fewer states opt to back different parties for President and Senate with each passing cycle, increasing cohesion between federal races. (Gubernatorial contests have more variance owing to their non-federalized… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Our House Ratings: A Quick Look

  December 11, 2021

  Introduction Split Ticket is excited to announce the release of our initial House ratings. This installment covers states that have enacted maps, or are expected to adopt recent proposals. As with all of our ratings, we will be using the Likely-Lean-Tossup system. Let’s take a look at the seven tossup… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Our Gubernatorial Ratings: A Rundown

  December 7, 2021

  Introduction Split Ticket is proud to announce our first set of race ratings for the 2022 cycle. This installment covers all 36 of next year’s gubernatorial contests, with a focus on the most competitive contests. Our Senate ratings will debut on Wednesday, followed by a look at some of the… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Welcome to America: The Beginning of Blue Virginia

  December 3, 2021

  Ahead of the 2006 election cycle, few doubted the advantage Republicans held in Virginia at the federal level. Democrats had not won the Old Dominion in a Presidential race since 1964, when LBJ romped to victory against conservative Senator Barry Goldwater. The GOP was generally successful in Senate races too.… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle