Harrison Lavelle
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Primary Round-Up: 6/14
Texas-34 (GOP Success in South Texas) Last night concluded the closely-watched special election campaign in Texas-34, a seat that runs north along the Gulf Coast from the heart of the Rio Grande Valley to the greater San Antonio area. Republican Mayra Flores defeated Democratic attorney Dan Sanchez 51-43.3%, avoiding a… Read More
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House Watchlist 6/14
Introduction This Tuesday, a series of hotly-contested House primaries will be occurring in Nevada and South Carolina. In addition to the latest nomination news, Split Ticket will provide updates on the House special elections in AK-AL and TX-34. To find out more about this year’s primary cycle, check out our… Read More
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How Important Is Presidential Lean In Midterm Years?
Introduction Previous Split Ticket research indicates that a district’s presidential lean is the single greatest predictor of its House result in a presidential year. Polarization has only reinforced this conclusion, causing the total number of “crossover” seats to shrink significantly over the last two decades. (Read more here) Since there… Read More
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5/24 Primary Watchlist
Senate In Arkansas, incumbent Republican John Boozman is running for re-election. Boozman should easily win both his primary and general election; this race is rated as Safe Republican, and in a Trump +28 state, it would have been this way regardless of the lean of the cycle. In Georgia, Herschel… Read More
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NY Ratings: Part II
Introduction In January, we wrote that the Empire State’s endearingly-named ‘Hochulmander’ would join Illinois as a critical part of the national Democratic redistricting phalanx. There was little expectation of a successful Republican appeal at that time. In April, the State Court of Appeals struck down the gerrymander. Neutral appointee Jonathan… Read More