Harrison Lavelle
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PA Realignment
Introduction Split Ticket recently started a new series studying realignments in specific states. Our first article, touching on New Jersey, determined that traditional down ballot partisan leans continue to weather opposing national trends, albeit to a lesser degree than in years past. This fundamental conclusion regarding “down ballot lag” is… Read More
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8/9 Primary Recap
Governor In Wisconsin, Trump-backed businessman Tim Michels won the GOP gubernatorial against former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch 47-42%. Timothy Ramthun finished third with just 6% of the vote. Going into this election, Split Ticket respectably issued an ultimately-incorrect LEANS KLEEFISCH rating. But why? Before any ballots were counted in Tuesday,… Read More
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8/9 Primary Watchlist
Senate VERMONT – 7:00 EDT Former US Attorney Christina Nolan, a moderate, will likely win the Republican nomination. She will go up against Democratic congressman Peter Welch in the race to succeed the retiring Democratic senator Patrick Leahy. We rate this race as SAFE DEMOCRATIC. CONNECTICUT – 8:00 EDTIn Connecticut,… Read More
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World Report Special Edition: UK PM
Background In December 2019, the Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, secured an outright majority in the House of Commons in what became a crushing defeat for its Labour foes. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, presiding over his party’s worst electoral showing in a generation, was later forced to… Read More
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House Primary Recap: 8/2
*All numbers current as of publication per New York Times* Arizona AZ-01 Likely Schweikert (Predicted Correctly) In Arizona’s 1st district, incumbent Republican David Schweikert won renomination with 43% of the vote. His nearest opponent, businessman Elijah Norton, took 33%. Given the incumbent’s relatively-low share of the vote, it is probable… Read More
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2000 Presidential Election
Introduction The 2000 presidential election was one of the most significant in American history, from the heated campaign between George W. Bush and Al Gore to the Supreme Court’s controversial affirmation of the decisively-narrow Republican victory in Florida. At the time, Democrats were trying to hold onto the White House… Read More
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New Jersey’s Realignment
Introduction Like in most American states, the geographic voting patterns of the reliably-Democratic Garden State have changed significantly in just the last ten years. Ancestral leanings are still visible in downballot elections for Governor and the legislature, but the overarching trends have even begun to manifest themselves at the local… Read More