Harrison Lavelle

• Changing Times: The 1988 Presidential Election

  September 3, 2022

  INTRODUCTION The 1988 presidential election is underdiscussed by historians and political analysts alike, often creating a façade of mundane normalcy that misleads observers into thinking that the race itself was boring or unimportant. Reality could not be further from the truth. This piece will shed light on some of the… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Alaska: A Deep Dive Into The Last Frontier

  September 2, 2022

  BACKGROUND On March 18th, Republican Congressman Don Young passed away, leaving Alaska without a representative in the Congress for the first time since 1973. Young, formerly Dean of the House, enjoyed a half-century tenure, making him the longest serving Republican representative in history. Along with that of former Senator Ted… Read More

  Galen Metzger, Harrison Lavelle, Armin Thomas and Leon Sit

• House Temperature Check

  August 29, 2022

  INTRODUCTION Last week’s special election in New York’s 19th district was one of multiple data points that forced Split Ticket to reevaluate its perception of Republican momentum going into November. To read a detailed analysis regarding signs of a possible Democratic rebound along with some prescient caveats for the fall,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• New York’s 19th: What Does It Mean For November?

  August 26, 2022

  INTRODUCTION On Tuesday, New York’s 19th district shocked the political world and forced pundits of all stripes to reconsider some of their long-held assumptions about the political dynamics of the 2022 midterm cycle. Despite being outspent, trailing in his party’s own internal polls, and having to contest a Biden-won swing… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 8/23 Primary Recap

  August 24, 2022

  SENATE FLORIDA In the Florida Senate race, 10th district Congresswoman Val Demings secured the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican Marco Rubio without a significant protest vote. Her nearest competitor, Brian Rush, carried just Liberty and Holmes counties, both located in the Panhandle. Rubio is a strong favorite to… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• House Watchlist (8/23)

  August 23, 2022

  HOT RACES (NEW YORK, FLORIDA, OKLAHOMA) Florida’s 7th district Florida’s new 7th district (Trump +5.5) is one of the GOP’s top post-redistricting targets. The 2012 iteration of the seat (Biden +10) was greatly altered by state Republicans, who exchanged Democratic turf in Orange County, including the whiter sections of eastern… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• District Rundown: New York’s 19th Special

  August 22, 2022

  Background With the November general elections just a few months away, Split Ticket decided to launch a new article series called District Rundown. Editions of rundown will be released on a weekly basis until November 8th, focusing on the competitive districts that will be most important to determining House control.… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle and Armin Thomas

• Primary Recap 8/16

  August 19, 2022

  Alaska Senate In a surprisingly strong showing, incumbent GOP senator Lisa Murkowski ended up with a lead of over four points on Trump-endorsed challenger Kelly Tshibaka, which is only projected to grow once all ballots are tabulated. More tellingly, Murkowski and the Democratic candidates combined for 52 percent of the… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain

• 8/16 Primary Watchlist

  August 16, 2022

  Alaska Senate In an eerily similar situation to 2010, incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski, one of the leaders of the GOP’s moderate wing, will once again be facing a serious challenge from her right flank. This time, Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka is attempting to unseat her, and if this was the… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle and Lakshya Jain