Split Ticket

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  • House Temperature Check: One Week Out

    A Look At The Generic Ballot With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. The previous edition expanded and rearranged the total number of competitive seats in preparation for the gradual elimination of our Tossups, a process that will be finished by… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • A Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator

    It’s increasingly well accepted at this point that Democrats are on track to have a fairly bad year, at least in terms of the national popular vote. Their president’s approval rating is at 44%, the out-party shows serious enthusiasm, and inflation is at 8%. None of these things generally point to a remotely competitive race… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • District Rundown: New Mexico’s 2nd

    BACKGROUND Welcome to the eighth edition of District Rundown, coming just a week and a half before election day. Last week’s publication touched on Indiana’s 1st district, an excellent late-breaking GOP pick-up opportunity currently rated TOSSUP for Split Ticket. Today’s analysis heads westward to one of the sunbelt’s most competitive congressional districts: New Mexico’s 2nd.… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?

    For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and his opponent, Evan McMullin, is… Read more

    Armin Thomas, Jacob S. Rugh and Lakshya Jain

  • House Temperature Check: Two Weeks Out

    Introduction With the election less than two weeks away, Split Ticket is releasing the first of three House updates meant to prepare our board of competitive seats for the eventual elimination of Tossups and to identify seats that *could* be competitive in November. Before delving into the details, readers should remember that the Likely classification… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Empire State Shocker

    Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a heavily blue state, is not… Read more

    Armin Thomas

  • District Rundown: Indiana’s 1st

    BACKGROUND Welcome to the seventh edition of District Rundown, Split Ticket’s biweekly House analysis series. The last publication focused on Colorado’s 8th district, a marginal Biden seat that Republicans are now favored to flip. Today’s release brings us to the heart of the Rust Belt to look at another high-stakes GOP target: Indiana’s 1st district.… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Oklahoma Governor: What’s Going On

    Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, is the latest Republican incumbent to suffer electoral headwinds due to caustic rhetoric and policy. Previously, Split Ticket discussed the factors underlying the ratings change for South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. But similar to Noem, Stitt has antagonized a number of key groups, faces a strong Democratic opponent, and suffers from closer-than-expected… Read more

    Armin Thomas

  • Republicans Gain In Polling As Elections Approach

    One of the weird things about this cycle is that in many ways, it truly is not like any other. President Joe Biden is at 44% approval with registered and likely voters, and yet the generic ballot and special election results indicate a tight national environment. Former president Donald Trump continues to command an unusually… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • District Rundown: Colorado’s 8th

    BACKGROUND & AUTHOR’S NOTE Welcome back to the sixth edition of District Rundown, coming just under three weeks before election day. Our last publication covered the TOSSUP race in Rhode Island’s 2nd district, one of the nation’s few late-breaking House contests. By popular demand, this week’s installment is moving west to the beautiful Centennial State… Read more

    Harrison Lavelle

  • What Does The Edge Of The Senate Battleground Look Like?

    Ed Note: On Sunday, we published our breakdown of the four core Senate battleground states that are likeliest to decide the majority. Today, we look at the five states closer to the edges of our board: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado. WISCONSIN This was one of the initial races we moved towards… Read more

    Lakshya Jain

  • The Four Senate Races Likely To Decide The Majority

    Ed Note: This will be part of a two-part article series breaking down the state of play in the race for control of the Senate. Part One today focuses on the four core battlegrounds that we believe will be the most tightly contested ones and will decide control of the chamber: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and… Read more

    Lakshya Jain