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The Case For (And Against) Joe Biden
Joe Biden’s abysmal showing in Thursday’s debate may well have been at the very top of the “worst case scenario” list for his campaign. It has sparked a firestorm of speculation regarding the viability of his candidacy and whether he should remain in the race, especially given his age and the broad concerns voters have Read More
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Bowman vs Latimer: A New York Blockbuster
Congressman Jamaal Bowman is facing a strong primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York’s 16th District. Despite national intra-party dynamics, local complications broaden the race beyond a simple clash between progressive and moderate Democrats. Differing electoral priorities of communities in Lower Westchester and the Bronx are driving the contest’s coalitions and Read More
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The Conviction Bounce
The 2024 presidential cycle has been defined by two things. The first is its length; in previous cycles, the matchup only became clear in March or April, but this time around, the scene was arguably already set by the beginning of the year. That means that this has been the longest general election “season” in Read More
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America’s Changing Suburbs: the Key to 2024?
For Americans, the “suburbs” have traditionally evoked images of cookie-cutter houses on sprawling roads, housing families with parents commuting to 9-to-5 jobs in nearby cities. Suburbs are also synonymous with a certain kind of prosperity and political power — two things that were, for many years, mostly exclusive to white Americans. But a look at Read More
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The Largest Native American Voting Blocs
Native American voters are an under-discussed voting bloc in American elections, but by no means are they an insignificant one. Well-known Senate victories by candidates of both parties have been attributed to the Native vote — from Republican Lisa Murkowski’s 2010 write-in win in Alaska to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp’s 2012 upset in North Dakota. More Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our new model gives Republicans a Read More
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What’s In A Rating?
Last month, the Cook Political Report published an article with some eye-opening statistics: over their 38-year history, more than 95% of races they called as “leaning” toward a party went to said party. By contrast, over 97% of races they called as “likely” to go to a party resolved as such — a mere 2% Read More
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Crosstabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out
Just under six months out from Election Day, national polling averages are showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just over 1 percentage point. They also show that, despite narratives of “momentum” for either candidate, the race has been fairly stable for the better part of a year. But what’s happening under the surface? Which Read More
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Temperature Check: 2024 Presidential Election
With six months to go in the 2024 presidential election cycle and both nominees set, it’s worth re-examining the state of the race. Polls are now more relevant, given increasing proximity to the election. While the fundamentals of the race, which include the issue landscape, campaign cash levels, and candidate vulnerabilities, continue to favor Joe Read More
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