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Is The Right Rising In Europe? An Analysis
Introduction Newton’s third law of motion, which states that every action has an equal and opposite reaction, applies to both physics and international politics. The connection might not be clear at first, since “opposite reactions” in the electoral sense often take time to manifest, but it is fundamental to understanding the wider world. Abroad, just… Read More
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What’s Going On With Trafalgar’s Polls?
Over the last two presidential cycles, the Trafalgar Group rose to fame for its polling, which yielded better-than-average results for Republicans and indicated closer races for Donald Trump than many other outlets predicted. Trafalgar partly attributes those numbers to its “social desirability metric”, which the firm claims adjusts for respondents, especially conservatives, answering the way… Read More
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Tales From Nebraska: Virginia Smith
INTRODUCTION TO VIRGINIA SMITH Who was Virginia Smith? Even the most astute modern political analysts probably would not know the answer to that question. Generally, that lack of recognition would be indicative of bad lawmaking or a forgettable career. Despite clear anonymity, placing Mrs. Smith into this category would belie just how important her congressional… Read More
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9/13 Primary Recap
SENATE In the GOP Senate primary, Trump-backed retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc eked out a victory over Chuck Morse by a mere percentage point. The tight margin came as a surprise to most observers, with pre-election polls suggesting a double-digit deficit for the state senate president. Bolduc will now face Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan… Read More
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9/13 Primary Watchlist
SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE In the GOP primary, retired Army brigadier general Don Bolduc leads the race to challenge incumbent Democratic senator (and former New Hampshire Governor) Maggie Hassan in November. In a continuation of a theme that the GOP has faced this cycle, Bolduc is likely to be the least electable candidate that the New… Read More
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2004 Presidential Election
In July, Split Ticket started a new historical analysis series designed to explain how certain past presidential elections ushered in, or contributed to, realignments of geographic and demographic natures. Our first article touched on the 2000 Presidential Election, a contest now regarded as one of the most consequential, and controversial, in American history. Broadly, Split… Read More
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World Report 9/9
INTRODUCTION The latest edition of World Report will begin with a historical tribute to Queen Elizabeth II before discussing important electoral news from the United Kingdom, Kenya, Chile, and Sweden. To read Split Ticket’s August publication, click here. UNITED KINGDOM This week’s biggest worldwide news came from the United Kingdom, where Queen Elizabeth II died… Read More
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New Jersey’s 2025 Gubernatorial Race: An Early Look
INTRODUCTION In 2021, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli rallied Republicans across the state of New Jersey to make the race against sitting Governor Phil Murphy surprisingly-close, losing 51-48%. Going into November, statewide polling had largely missed the palpable GOP enthusiasm that had developed as a result of both a strongly-Republican national environment and President Biden’s sinking… Read More
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Could Maura Healey Make History in Massachusetts?
The September 6th statewide primaries in Massachusetts will be among the last sets of US elections before the November midterms, and the top of the ticket in the Bay State will be a referendum on who voters want to succeed outgoing Republican Governor Charlie Baker. With no Massachusetts Republican even remotely approaching Baker’s sky-high approval… Read More
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