Armin Thomas
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Texas Republicans’ Oldest Trick In The Book
Democrats’ political woes just got darker. Recently, the Texas Legislature reconvened to reconfigure Democratic-leaning congressional districts to elect Republicans. The New York Times reports that anywhere between 2 and 5 Democratic-held seats in Texas are vulnerable, and President Donald Trump has instructed the legislature to target 5 Democratic incumbents. Considering… Read More
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The Real Reason Democrats Can’t Compete For 60 Senate Seats
It’s no secret that the Senate is an extraordinarily difficult and uphill challenge for Democrats — in order to win the chamber in 2026, the party will likely need to flip at least two of Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Florida. Meanwhile, their hopes of competing in 60 seats, like they… Read More
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How Democrats Won Wisconsin In 2025: Turnout.
If you looked at the landslide Democratic victory in the state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, you might think that public opinion had swung sharply and massively against Donald Trump and the GOP, despite Elon Musk’s eight-figure investment in the state. But while persuasion certainly explains part of the victory,… Read More
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Where Should Democrats Run Independents?
The Senate’s rural bias has put Democrats at a severe disadvantage in the chamber. This has been compounded by the rise of polarization, which cost Democrats the red states of Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio in 2024 — and what’s worse, there currently doesn’t seem to be a plausible path… Read More
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Who Is Voting For Reform Prosecutors?
Reform prosecutors entered the 2024 election year with significant headwinds: in recent years, they were recalled (Chesa Boudin in San Francisco), defeated (Marilyn Mosby in Baltimore City), and blowback to racial justice has mounted since the George Floyd summer nearly five years ago. But because prosecutors are elected at the… Read More
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Our Final Forecast
President At the presidential level, our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning, and project her to win 270 electoral votes — at the moment, the “Blue Wall”… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/05): The Potential Illusion Of Stability
In a cycle characterized recently by immense upheaval, stability is perhaps the last thing that would come to mind regarding the 2024 elections. Yet for perhaps the first time in months, that is exactly what would characterize our forecasts right now. Coalitions are largely set (in fact, FiveThirtyEight’s crosstab aggregates… Read More
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Would Voter Turnout Be Enough To Flip Texas Blue?
For 30 years, Texas Democrats have eagerly forecasted an eventual Democratic takeover of Texas, pinning their hopes on rapidly growing minority populations that traditionally lean blue. However, following three decades of statewide losses, observers may be excused for being skeptical of a “Blexas” future — despite the state becoming majority-minority,… Read More
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Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in… Read More