Year: 2022
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Our Final Governor’s Ratings
The board is set. There are only a few days left before Election Day, and thus Split Ticket has now made final forecasts for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. The map is immediately below, followed by an explanation of each race. Overall, the result is a modestly good night for the GOP:… Read More
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A Look At Two House “Sleepers”
INTRODUCTION On Monday, Split Ticket released its second to last House ratings update showing Republicans favored to take back the majority in the chamber. Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated. A winner will be picked in each… Read More
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A Tale of 2 Committees: How outside money in AZ and OH is shaping the Senate races
This year, the spending in two Senate campaigns–Arizona and Ohio–represent a departure from the conventional architecture of statewide campaigns. Republican candidates in these races have all but abandoned traditional fundraising avenues for a deluge of outside funding dollars unleashed by the notorious Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United 12 years… Read More
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World Report: Israeli Elections
INTRODUCTION Israel is experiencing its fifth election cycle in three and a half years. The contest is once again centered around the character of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for bribery and breach of trust charges. He will try to gain a majority in the… Read More
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A Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator
It’s increasingly well accepted at this point that Democrats are on track to have a fairly bad year, at least in terms of the national popular vote. Their president’s approval rating is at 44%, the out-party shows serious enthusiasm, and inflation is at 8%. None of these things generally point… Read More
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District Rundown: New Mexico’s 2nd
BACKGROUND Welcome to the eighth edition of District Rundown, coming just a week and a half before election day. Last week’s publication touched on Indiana’s 1st district, an excellent late-breaking GOP pick-up opportunity currently rated TOSSUP for Split Ticket. Today’s analysis heads westward to one of the sunbelt’s most competitive… Read More
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Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?
For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and… Read More