Category: Primaries

• House Primary Recap: 8/2

  August 3, 2022

  *All numbers current as of publication per New York Times* Arizona AZ-01 Likely Schweikert (Predicted Correctly) In Arizona’s 1st district, incumbent Republican David Schweikert won renomination with 43% of the vote. His nearest opponent, businessman Elijah Norton, took 33%. Given the incumbent’s relatively-low share of the vote, it is probable… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 8/2 House Primary Watchlist

  August 2, 2022

  Introduction For the first time since June, Split Ticket will be providing full coverage of a nationwide primary date. This week’s races will occur across five states: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. Most of the attention thus far has been directed at competitive Republican primaries for Senate and Governor,… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Maryland Statewide Primary Preview

  July 19, 2022

  With Governor Larry Hogan (R) term-limited, Attorney General Brian Frosh (D) retiring, and Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) running for Governor, Marylanders will enjoy a once in a blue moon opportunity to choose new nominees for all three statewide offices. Although every office has attracted a variety of interesting faces, the… Read More

  Max McCall and Lakshya Jain

• Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes

  July 19, 2022

  Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Vulnerable Incumbents: Primary Edition

  July 7, 2022

  Introduction It is rare for sitting members of the House to lose renomination because they tend to have advantages in terms of fundraising and name recognition. Outsider victories have traditionally been possible only under unique circumstances involving scandal, intra-party ideological chafing, or concentrated electoral weakness. Given the above points, it… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• NE-01: Implications, or not?

  June 30, 2022

  Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday

  June 29, 2022

  Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/28 House Watchlist

  June 28, 2022

  Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Our Final 2022 Colorado Primary Preview

  June 27, 2022

  On Tuesday, Colorado will hold its primary elections. At stake in the many contests is the statewide direction of both parties and their narrative heading into the midterm elections. Because of the many races on the ballot, we’ve decided to publish a separate article solely previewing Colorado, and we’ll lead… Read More

  Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain