Category: President 2024
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What Happened In 2023, And What Does It Mean For 2024?
It goes without saying that Democrats broadly exceeded pre-election expectations last Tuesday. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection comfortably, improving relative to his 2019 performance across the state. In Mississippi, challenger Brandon Presley came closer to winning the gubernatorial race than any Democrat since 1999. Their success wasn’t limited to… Read More
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The DeSantis Decline
After former President Donald Trump led a hand-picked slate of candidates to defeat in 2022, many Republicans sought a fresh face to lead the conservative movement. For some members of the GOP establishment, the ideal candidate was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In him they saw a younger, sharper version of… Read More
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How Much Does Early Presidential Polling Matter?
Donald Trump’s “MAGA” movement is arguably more unpopular than ever before, with only 24% of the electorate (and 12% of independents) viewing it favorably. But if you looked at the 2024 presidential polls for a Biden-Trump rematch, you probably wouldn’t be able to figure that out. Virtually every polling aggregation… Read More
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Does Trump’s Indictment Change Anything?
Last week, the Department of Justice indicted former President Donald Trump on 37 counts relating to his illegal retention of classified documents. Despite the possibility of conviction and his unpopularity among the general electorate, Trump remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination, and polls suggest that his latest scandal… Read More
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Our Initial 2024 Presidential Ratings
With the Republican presidential primary field all but set and the election less than 18 months away, Split Ticket now debuts its initial 2024 presidential ratings. Historically, preference volatility has hindered projection-making from this point in time, over a year out from either party convention. However, with increased ideological entrenchment,… Read More