Category: Polling
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2024 Showed The Value Of Polling
Going into election night, polling suggested a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with surveys showing less than a half percentage point separating the two candidates in the tipping point state in Pennsylvania. The bulk of polling suggested that the race would come down to the wire, with… Read More
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Our 2024 Polling Aggregators (And How They Work)
With the election cycle in full swing and the electoral picture stabilizing, it can be easy to overreact to noise in individual polls and develop narratives around them. That’s why today at Split Ticket, we’re releasing our polling aggregates for 2024. Our hope is that you can use them to… Read More
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We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here’s What We Found.
It’s not often that much electoral attention finds its way to the Republican-dominated Great Plains, as the region only has a few remotely-competitive districts on the federal level. This year, however, Nebraska features three potentially-competitive races: the single electoral vote controlled by the state’s second congressional district (NE-02), the concurrent… Read More
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We Polled The Rust Belt. Here’s What We Found.
The national political climate has undergone a seismic shift since we polled the nation one month ago. On July 21st, the nation experienced a political earthquake when President Joe Biden, plagued by the fallout from his lackluster June debate performance, dropped out of the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris… Read More
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We Polled Black Voters. Here’s What We Found.
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25% of its total voters, and it was Biden’s heavy margins with this group that powered him to the nomination… Read More
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We Polled The Nation. Here’s What We Found.
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample size of N=2,067 likely voters, and was weighted to be representative of age, gender, education, race,… Read More
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The Conviction Bounce
The 2024 presidential cycle has been defined by two things. The first is its length; in previous cycles, the matchup only became clear in March or April, but this time around, the scene was arguably already set by the beginning of the year. That means that this has been the… Read More
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Crosstabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out
Just under six months out from Election Day, national polling averages are showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just over 1 percentage point. They also show that, despite narratives of “momentum” for either candidate, the race has been fairly stable for the better part of a year. But what’s… Read More
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Chaos In The Crosstabs
Over the course of this election cycle, perhaps no single demographic has received more attention than young voters, which many polls now suggest to be increasingly Trump-curious. This has been observed alongside a similarly shocking swing toward Biden among elderly voters. If these surveys are correct, then our political landscape… Read More