Category: Historical
-
A look back at 2018 and what it means for 2022
Introduction With early voting in the first Congressional primary of the year already underway, the midterm campaign season is beginning to heat up in earnest. Due to President Biden’s sagging approval ratings, a strong Republican performance in the 2021 off-year elections, and entrenched historical precedent, general expectations for November point… Read More
-
Suburban Republicanism: What is its future?
Introduction Suburban Republicanism is a difficult phenomenon for any political observer to analyze because its strength and tone have shifted greatly over time. One size definitely does not fit all when it comes to descriptors, a reality exemplified by regional traditions that can defy conventional wisdom on both party affiliation… Read More
-
Redistricting and Partisan Balance: The New House Map Might Favor Democrats
For long-time watchers of cable news, it’s long been taken as a given that the House of Representatives has a semi-permanent Republican skew due to gerrymandering and geographical bias. Since the emergence of project REDMAP in 2010, in which Republicans crafted gerrymandered maps that drew several red-state Democrats out with… Read More
-
Biggest House Underperformances of 2020
Introduction When pundits look back on past House cycles, they often pass ex post facto judgement on campaign outcomes and candidate quality. Overperforming incumbents and successful challengers, especially those scoring unexpected victories, are lauded and heralded as models for electoral success. But what about the underperformers? The hopefuls that win… Read More
-
The Trump Endorsement: An Analysis
Introduction Over the course of the 2016 primary season, businessman and reality TV star Donald J. Trump took the GOP by storm. His enigmatic rise allowed him to triumph over more than a dozen experienced elected office holders and party luminaries that most pundits considered significantly stronger than him. After… Read More
-
Impeachment Republicans: Where are they now?
Intro Recently, one of our readers suggested that we revisit the ten House Republicans who broke with their party to vote in favor of President Donald Trump’s second impeachment in 2021. Despite the possibility of electoral retribution, all of these members decided to place convictions above ambition by voting against… Read More
-
Re-evaluating 2016 with our Senate WAR model
Among Democrats, arguably no cycle was greeted with as much hope for the Senate map as the one during the 2016 cycle. At the beginning of it all, strategists across the nation thought the majority was theirs for the taking, and Democrats were salivating at the prospects of unseating incumbent… Read More
-
Just how intertwined are Presidential and Senate results?
Introduction As any election observer will know, ‘split ticket’ voting is becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon in Presidential years. Fewer and fewer states opt to back different parties for President and Senate with each passing cycle, increasing cohesion between federal races. (Gubernatorial contests have more variance owing to their non-federalized… Read More
-
Welcome to America: The Beginning of Blue Virginia
Ahead of the 2006 election cycle, few doubted the advantage Republicans held in Virginia at the federal level. Democrats had not won the Old Dominion in a Presidential race since 1964, when LBJ romped to victory against conservative Senator Barry Goldwater. The GOP was generally successful in Senate races too.… Read More