Category: House 2024 Ratings
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Our Final Forecast
President At the presidential level, our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning, and project her to win 270 electoral votes — at the moment, the “Blue Wall”… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/26): Model Wars (And Is Early Voting Predictive?)
As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, Democratic fretting about the election continues to ramp up. Multiple news articles have documented the “vibe shift,” noting that some within the party have already begun to point fingers at those they believe will be responsible for a Harris loss. These… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/19): The Signal And The Noise
Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris’ odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. Readers may note that this marks the fourth straight week of decline from her peak of 62% when the model launched, which happened fresh off a debate that Harris was widely seen as having… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/12): What’s The Point Of A Model?
Today’s analysis of our model looks remarkably similar to last week’s, as well as the week preceding that one. Our presidential model gives Kamala Harris a 55% chance of winning the election. This is almost identical to the 57% chance our model gave her over the past two weeks. The… Read More
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Temperature Check (9/27): House, Senate, and Presidency
Between now and election day, we’ll be doing a series of weekly updates on the state of the race in the House, Senate, and Presidency. Our goal is to keep you informed on what our models say on a weekly basis about the evolving state of the race as the… Read More
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Temperature Check: Democratic House Outlook Improves
In our last set of House updates, we noted that Democrats had emerged as favorites to win the election. Since then, their odds have only gotten better. Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority, which is the highest it has been since its inception. Our… Read More
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Democrats Claw Back Slim Edge In Race For House Control
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the House majority. Since then, the picture has changed substantially, especially after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the… Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our… Read More
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House Temperature Check: 9/18
Six months have passed since we released our 2024 House ratings, following the lackluster showing by Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections. Since then, the national environment seems to have improved for Democrats and critical mid-decade redistricting is on the horizon in a number of important states. In light of… Read More