Leon Sit
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Why Latino Voters Surged for Bernie and Trump
In the 2020 presidential election, one of the largest political shifts occurred in Latino communities. While Democrats still won Latino communities by-and-large, more Latinos from Florida to California voted for Trump in 2020 than in 2016. Perhaps the most eye-grabbing rightward shift came from the Texan border with Mexico, especially… Read More
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Democrats Claw Back Slim Edge In Race For House Control
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the House majority. Since then, the picture has changed substantially, especially after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the… Read More
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We Polled Black Voters. Here’s What We Found.
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25% of its total voters, and it was Biden’s heavy margins with this group that powered him to the nomination… Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our… Read More
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We Polled Young Voters. Here’s What We Found.
If you’ve followed any of the polling from this presidential election cycle, you’re probably aware of massive purported swings in the voting behavior of the youngest and oldest voters in the electorate portended by polling. Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom… Read More
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Our NY-03 Special Election Preview
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect a close race, given the extent of their recent investments in the district. With control of the House as narrow as… Read More
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For Once, Republicans Might Want A High Turnout Election
Entering 2020, it was nearly impossible to find a national poll that had Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump. Polling averages all showed every Democratic candidate leading the then-incumbent Republican president by several points, with the question being the size of the margin. Commentary discussed whether the Republicans even had a… Read More
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The Potential Political Impact of Shifting State Populations
In Part 1 of this article, we reviewed population changes since both the 2020 Census and the Dobbs decision. Although shifts in the distribution of population can be interesting, it directly relates to political power through reapportionment. With any national population estimate released by the Census Bureau, observers often turn… Read More
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How Have Populations Changed In Red and Blue States?
A week ago, state population totals from the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates were released, the first data covering population changes following the controversial Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court Decision. Before any conclusions are drawn, it is crucial to note the inherent margin of error found in all, and between… Read More