Max McCall
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We Polled The Nation. Here’s What We Found.
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample size of N=2,067 likely voters, and was weighted to be representative of age, gender, education, race,… Read More
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America’s Changing Suburbs: the Key to 2024?
For Americans, the “suburbs” have traditionally evoked images of cookie-cutter houses on sprawling roads, housing families with parents commuting to 9-to-5 jobs in nearby cities. Suburbs are also synonymous with a certain kind of prosperity and political power — two things that were, for many years, mostly exclusive to white… Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our… Read More
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The Pendulum Counties
Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election with a margin quite similar to that of the 2012 reelection of his predecessor Barack Obama — 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively. However, his coalition differed from Obama’s, having been the product of nearly a decade of electoral change. Many counties moved in one… Read More
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The Cannabis Consensus: Marijuana Referendums Bridge Political Divides
As 2024 begins, Americans in twenty-four states and D.C. find themselves in jurisdictions where recreational marijuana is legal. Public opinion nationwide is now decisively in favor of legalization, with support hovering around 70%. Politicians have largely abandoned it as a polarizing issue. This was not always the case; at the… Read More
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Our NY-03 Special Election Preview
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect a close race, given the extent of their recent investments in the district. With control of the House as narrow as… Read More
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Larry Hogan Faces An Impossible Challenge
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of his state’s most popular governors in recent memory. Remarkably, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded… Read More
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Do Democrats Have An Issue Advantage in Education?
Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education has been an ever-present force in American politics. It is also an issue that has long favored… Read More
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Maryland Statewide Primary Preview
With Governor Larry Hogan (R) term-limited, Attorney General Brian Frosh (D) retiring, and Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) running for Governor, Marylanders will enjoy a once in a blue moon opportunity to choose new nominees for all three statewide offices. Although every office has attracted a variety of interesting faces, the… Read More