Lakshya Jain
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A Detailed Look Back At The 2000 Presidential Election
Introduction The 2000 presidential election was one of the most significant in American history, from the heated campaign between George W. Bush and Al Gore to the Supreme Court’s controversial affirmation of the decisively-narrow Republican victory in Florida. At the time, Democrats were trying to hold onto the White House… Read More
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Iowa, Partisanship, and Identity: An Interview with Rob Sand
“The most underappreciated thing about Iowa’s swing towards Trump is that it’s actually a thing of consistency. We stuck with the outsider. We picked the change candidate in 2008 and stuck with the change candidate in 2012 against a caricature of what a Democrat wants to run against in a… Read More
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Has The Supreme Court Ruling On Abortion Changed The Electoral Picture?
On June 24, the Supreme Court issued a ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson declaring that the right to an abortion was not constitutionally protected and could be blocked by states. The ruling, which was deeply unpopular across the nation, set off a firestorm of debate on both sides regarding legislation… Read More
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Maryland Statewide Primary Preview
With Governor Larry Hogan (R) term-limited, Attorney General Brian Frosh (D) retiring, and Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) running for Governor, Marylanders will enjoy a once in a blue moon opportunity to choose new nominees for all three statewide offices. Although every office has attracted a variety of interesting faces, the… Read More
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How Much More Ticket-Splitting Do Governor Races Have?
The notion that voters are far more willing to cross party lines for statewide offices than for federal positions is one of the most-commonly held viewpoints in politics today. It’s a point reinforced by scores of data that we do have; there’s little chance that ultra-popular GOP governor Charlie Baker… Read More
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Temperature Check: Senate
With just under five months to go until the November elections and primary season approximately halfway over, matchups for the Senate elections appear to be solidifying, and control of the chamber looks set to go down to the wire, with both parties having a credible case for optimism regarding the… Read More
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Where Do Trends Favor Each Party?
The most common way to look at election shifts is to look at county-level swing. This is the standard, accepted tool in virtually every form of analysis, and it is quite easy to compute: for each county, simply take the margin in one election and subtract it from the margin… Read More
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Gubernatorial Ratings Update: 6/1
Michigan In a stunning turn of events, the top three candidates for the GOP gubernatorial nomination were kicked off the ballot for signature fraud, leaving Republicans with a splintered field of underwhelming nominees and an upset primary electorate. The chaos surrounding the fracas has deeply angered many Michigan Republicans, and… Read More