Harrison Lavelle
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We Polled The Rust Belt. Here’s What We Found.
The national political climate has undergone a seismic shift since we polled the nation one month ago. On July 21st, the nation experienced a political earthquake when President Joe Biden, plagued by the fallout from his lackluster June debate performance, dropped out of the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris… Read More
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What Powered That Startling Democratic Overperformance in Ohio? Turnout.
The last positive electoral news for Democrats before President Biden’s lackluster debate performance came from a special election in Ohio’s 6th district on June 11th, where Democrat Michael Kripchak exceeded expectations in a contest to replace Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. The seat, which backed former President Trump by nearly 30… Read More
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We Polled Black Voters. Here’s What We Found.
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25% of its total voters, and it was Biden’s heavy margins with this group that powered him to the nomination… Read More
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We Polled The Nation. Here’s What We Found.
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample size of N=2,067 likely voters, and was weighted to be representative of age, gender, education, race,… Read More
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America’s Changing Suburbs: the Key to 2024?
For Americans, the “suburbs” have traditionally evoked images of cookie-cutter houses on sprawling roads, housing families with parents commuting to 9-to-5 jobs in nearby cities. Suburbs are also synonymous with a certain kind of prosperity and political power — two things that were, for many years, mostly exclusive to white… Read More
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The Largest Native American Voting Blocs
Native American voters are an under-discussed voting bloc in American elections, but by no means are they an insignificant one. Well-known Senate victories by candidates of both parties have been attributed to the Native vote — from Republican Lisa Murkowski’s 2010 write-in win in Alaska to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp’s 2012… Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our… Read More
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Temperature Check: 2024 Presidential Election
With six months to go in the 2024 presidential election cycle and both nominees set, it’s worth re-examining the state of the race. Polls are now more relevant, given increasing proximity to the election. While the fundamentals of the race, which include the issue landscape, campaign cash levels, and candidate… Read More
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Temperature Check: Ohio Senate
Democrats won back the Senate in 2020 following historic victories in two hotly contested Georgia runoffs. Going into 2022, they had to hold Senate seats in three competitive Biden-won states to retain the majority (NV, AZ, and GA) — a difficult task for a party at the helm during a midterm.… Read More