Harrison Lavelle
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The Texas Primary Watchlist
Introduction Welcome to the first edition of Watchlist, Split Ticket’s new electoral rundown series. With political junkies everywhere preparing for the beginning of election season, all eyes are focused on Texas. There, the inaugural primaries of the 2022 cycle will be held tomorrow. Each of the most competitive statewide and… Read More
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A look back at 2018 and what it means for 2022
Introduction With early voting in the first Congressional primary of the year already underway, the midterm campaign season is beginning to heat up in earnest. Due to President Biden’s sagging approval ratings, a strong Republican performance in the 2021 off-year elections, and entrenched historical precedent, general expectations for November point… Read More
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Suburban Republicanism: What is its future?
Introduction Suburban Republicanism is a difficult phenomenon for any political observer to analyze because its strength and tone have shifted greatly over time. One size definitely does not fit all when it comes to descriptors, a reality exemplified by regional traditions that can defy conventional wisdom on both party affiliation… Read More
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Redistricting and Partisan Balance: The New House Map Might Favor Democrats
For long-time watchers of cable news, it’s long been taken as a given that the House of Representatives has a semi-permanent Republican skew due to gerrymandering and geographical bias. Since the emergence of project REDMAP in 2010, in which Republicans crafted gerrymandered maps that drew several red-state Democrats out with… Read More
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Ticket-Splitting Voters Are Disappearing — Which Makes Them Even More Valuable
The following article was written by Split Ticket Partners Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle for The Bulwark on January 25 and is being reposted here with the permission of The Bulwark. On November 4, 2020, Rep. Collin Peterson—the maverick, conservative Democrat from western Minnesota—was nowhere to be found for a… Read More
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Biggest House Underperformances of 2020
Introduction When pundits look back on past House cycles, they often pass ex post facto judgement on campaign outcomes and candidate quality. Overperforming incumbents and successful challengers, especially those scoring unexpected victories, are lauded and heralded as models for electoral success. But what about the underperformers? The hopefuls that win… Read More
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The Trump Endorsement: An Analysis
Introduction Over the course of the 2016 primary season, businessman and reality TV star Donald J. Trump took the GOP by storm. His enigmatic rise allowed him to triumph over more than a dozen experienced elected office holders and party luminaries that most pundits considered significantly stronger than him. After… Read More