Harrison Lavelle

• Maryland House Primary + House Ratings Changes

  July 19, 2022

  Maryland House Much like New York’s, Maryland’s initial redistricting proposal was struck down by the courts before it could have electoral effect. No one is happier about the ruling than 1st district Republican Andy Harris. His current Trump +20 seat is based around the Eastern Shore and exurbs of Baltimore… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• World Report: Second Edition

  July 16, 2022

  Important Updates Ex-Japanese PM Shinzo Abe assassinated, LDP succeeds in House of Councillors (Sangiin) election On the 8th of July, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated while giving a campaign speech for an LDP Sangiin candidate. The assailant, a 41-year old ex-soldier using a modified weapon, targeted Abe… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• World Report: Return Edition

  July 12, 2022

  Introduction A swarm of June primary elections in the United States recently subsided, allowing Split Ticket to turn its attention once more to the rest of the globe. This is the Return Edition of World Report, an article series devoted to covering foreign elections and politics. Since the majority of… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• Vulnerable Incumbents: Primary Edition

  July 7, 2022

  Introduction It is rare for sitting members of the House to lose renomination because they tend to have advantages in terms of fundraising and name recognition. Outsider victories have traditionally been possible only under unique circumstances involving scandal, intra-party ideological chafing, or concentrated electoral weakness. Given the above points, it… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• NE-01: Implications, or not?

  June 30, 2022

  Background Both the new and old versions of Nebraska’s 1st district are reliably-Republican seats on paper, which is why Tuesday’s surprisingly-competitive special election barely received attention over the last few months. There is certainly no reason to blame the election world for missing this race, because no one’s fundamentals suggested… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/28 Primary Recap – The Last Super Tuesday

  June 29, 2022

  Primary Recap – Important Developments *A specific piece focusing solely on the implications of the special election in Nebraska’s 1st will be published tomorrow* Colorado The Colorado GOP had an excellent night in statewide primaries on Tuesday. Extreme candidates Ron Hanks, Greg Lopez, and Tina Peters all lost to mainstream… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/28 House Watchlist

  June 28, 2022

  Colorado For more detailed analysis by Colorado expert Armin Thomas and Lakshya Jain, check out the Centennial State preview here. The 3rd district takes in much of western and south-central Colorado. It is composed of a diverse set of political constituencies: conservative bastions like Grand Junction, liberal extensions of ‘Ski… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/21 Recap & June House Update

  June 24, 2022

  Primary Recap Virginia In Virginia 2nd’s district, state Senator Jen Kiggans comfortably won the GOP nomination with 56% of the vote. She defeated three opponents running to her right, including Navy veteran Jarome Bell. Her strongest district-wide margin came from Virginia Beach County, where she took 63%. She performed worst… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle

• 6/21 House Watchlist: VA, GA, & AL

  June 20, 2022

  Introduction This week, six important Republican House primaries will be occurring in the south. Three of these races are runoffs happening in Georgia, with two of them (GA-06 & GA-10) acting as referendums on former President Trump’s endorsement power. Two more, in Virginia, will determine challengers to incumbent Democrats in… Read More

  Harrison Lavelle