Armin Thomas
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Looking Back at Utah’s 2022 Senate Race
One of the most surprising results of the 2022 midterms was the relatively close Utah Senate race. The ruby-red state posted a 10.4-point win for incumbent GOP Sen. Mike Lee over conservative independent Evan McMullin — a remarkable underperformance by Lee. By comparison, the comparatively more competitive state of Florida… Read More
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Georgia Senate Runoff Preview
On Tuesday, Georgia voters will go to the polls for the Senate runoff election, which was triggered by no candidate getting an outright majority in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock will face off against former UGA football star Herschel Walker, and with Warnock having led Walker… Read More
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Against The Trend: New England
Introduction Welcome to the third edition of Against The Trend, a new series devoted to regional analyses of the 2022 House election results. After covering New York and Texas, today’s publication examines how Split Ticket’s ratings held up in New England — one of the country’s crossover voting havens. There’s… Read More
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Candidate Quality Cost Statewide Republicans In 2022
Heading into the election, several national indicators pointed to the Republican Party likely having a fairly good night. Biden’s approval sat at 44%, the generic ballot sat at R+1.1, and inflation was still around 8%, with gas prices more expensive than they were during the red wave-esque environment of November… Read More
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Our Final Governor’s Ratings
The board is set. There are only a few days left before Election Day, and thus Split Ticket has now made final forecasts for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. The map is immediately below, followed by an explanation of each race. Overall, the result is a modestly good night for the GOP:… Read More
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Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?
For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and… Read More
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Empire State Shocker
Start spreadin’ the news. This race is in play. Zeldin has got a shot at it. New York, New York. Today, Split Ticket is moving the governor’s election in New York State from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is mounting a stronger-than-expected challenge. New York, a… Read More
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Oklahoma Governor: What’s Going On
Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, is the latest Republican incumbent to suffer electoral headwinds due to caustic rhetoric and policy. Previously, Split Ticket discussed the factors underlying the ratings change for South Dakota’s Kristi Noem. But similar to Noem, Stitt has antagonized a number of key groups, faces a strong Democratic… Read More
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What’s Happening in South Dakota?
South Dakota is normally a red state. And by red, this means very red. Donald Trump won the state by 30 points in 2016 and by 26 points in 2020. In past eras of the New Deal and of the 1980s Farm Crisis, Democrats were more competitive, but today, South… Read More