Armin Thomas
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Kari Lake Could Cost Republicans The Arizona Senate Seat
Earlier this week, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not run for re-election, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a three-way contest. This development is a rare break of good news for Senate Democrats, for whom perfect conditions have not materialized: Joe Manchin is on track… Read More
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What Happened With Black Voters in Louisiana?
After the 2023 elections, Louisiana Republicans are arguably in their strongest position in history. The establishment of a firm supermajority eliminated the last vestiges of Democratic control from this formerly-blue “Solid South” state. As Democratic margins with southern white voters have steadily slipped cycle after cycle, margins with southern Black… Read More
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Breaking Racial Polarization: A Case Study In The Deep South
The Upper Mississippi Delta region is home to some of the strongest and most intractable racial polarization anywhere in the country. Since the mass re-enfranchisement of black voters in the 1960s, white voters have overwhelmingly preferred Republicans while black voters have strongly backed Democrats. Long-term shifts driven by educational and… Read More
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What Happened In Mississippi?
On a night of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in the 2023 elections, Brandon Presley’s 3.2% loss in Mississippi’s gubernatorial election stands out. Facing an incumbent governor in a Trump +17 state in the Deep South, most had already written off the Presley campaign. Then, a catastrophic October Democratic underperformance in… Read More
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The Flip Side to the Dobbs Effect
Media coverage of elections has presented theories of how abortion-focused messaging has allowed Democrats to beat expectations. From June 2022 and beyond, this has largely been true — with the voters of states such as Ohio and Michigan recently electing to protect abortion rights in their states. Despite the position’s… Read More
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Can Kyrsten Sinema Win in Arizona?
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s transition from a relatively predictable moderate Democrat to a mercurial independent has shaken up the upcoming Senate election in her home state. Her party switch topped off her breaks with party orthodoxy on key agenda items, which has enraged rank-and-file Democrats in Arizona and led to… Read More
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Special Election Primary Preview: RI-01 & UT-02
Today, competitive Democratic and Republican primaries are taking place in Rhode Island’s 1st and Utah’s 2nd congressional districts, respectively. These districts, which voted for their favored Presidential candidate by substantial margins in 2020, are not expected to host competitive general elections in November. Therefore, the winners of tonight’s primaries are… Read More
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Joe Manchin’s 2024 Re-Election: Difficult or Impossible?
Senator Joe Manchin is the last remaining Democrat elected statewide in West Virginia. After defying state partisanship to win reelection in 2018, pundits wonder whether he can pull off an even more impressive victory in 2024. Our Safe Republican rating reflects the fact that Manchin’s path to victory is currently… Read More
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Evaluating Sherrod Brown’s Path to Reelection
Senator Sherrod Brown has comfortably won three senate races and currently is the only Democratic statewide elected official in Ohio. His most recent reelection performance was impressive for a Trump-era Democrat in an increasingly-Republican state, but our 2018 WAR model suggests that it wasn’t particularly extraordinary. Brown overperformed by just… Read More