Split Ticket

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  • A Special Election Trio

    Introduction & Some History During any primary season, most attention is naturally devoted to the nominating contests that directly affect the November generals. But special elections, owing to their rarity and oddness, tend steal the spotlight when they occur a few times each year. Part of the attention stems from competitiveness, since specials usually produce Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The Battle for the Future of the Republican Party: What is Trump’s Role?

    Introduction When New York businessman Donald Trump first announced his Presidential campaign in June 2015, few mainstream pundits took him seriously. Over the ensuing year, Trump shocked the political establishment by spearheading the successful defeat of over a dozen capable officeholders – each of whom was well-groomed to seek the Presidency. In so doing, Trump Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Double-Bunkings: Historical Lessons

    Introduction Double-bunkings are among the most enjoyable contests that redistricting connoisseurs and political wonks get to cover. There are a three main factors that fuel the mysterious allure that is often associated with them. For one, double-bunkings are the only contests that pit two incumbents of the same party against each other. Sitting members are Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Is Electability Real?

    One of the biggest flashpoints in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries was the notion of electability. Candidate after candidate was assessed by primary voters on the basis of who would be most likely to win the general election against Donald Trump, and entire campaigns floundered or surged around their answers to the question. Critics of Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Our 2018 House Wins-Above-Replacement Model, and the 2022 Implications

    In today’s era of hyperpolarization, the single most accurate predictor of a district’s congressional vote is the presidential lean of the seat. As we previously analyzed here at Split Ticket, 97% of a district’s 2020 congressional vote could be explained simply by its presidential lean that year. With this in mind, it is likely that Read More

    Lakshya Jain

  • Retirement Musings: Part 2

    Introduction Last year, one of Split Ticket’s first articles focused on House retirements. Since then, numerous incumbents (though mostly Democrats) have hopped on the departure train heading out of Washington. With filing deadlines fast approaching across the country, most candidates have already declared their intentions. This follow-up article will take a brief look at the Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The Texas Recap + Ratings Shifts

    Introduction Texans voted in the first primary election of the 2022 cycle yesterday, concluding some hard fought campaigns and setting up a few more in the process. To be self-accountable, Split Ticket will be releasing recaps after each primary revisiting our Watchlist predictions while shedding some light on November. So buckle up and prepare for Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • The Texas Primary Watchlist

    Introduction Welcome to the first edition of Watchlist, Split Ticket’s new electoral rundown series. With political junkies everywhere preparing for the beginning of election season, all eyes are focused on Texas. There, the inaugural primaries of the 2022 cycle will be held tomorrow. Each of the most competitive statewide and congressional nomination fights will be Read More

    Harrison Lavelle

  • Redistricting: What’s left?

    Introduction As of this writing, six states have yet to complete their decennial redistricting processes. Of those six, two (OH & FL) happen to be some of the most electorally-significant states in the country. All told, there are nearly 50 Congressional districts remaining to be drawn. At least 1/3rd of those seats stand to be Read More

    Harrison Lavelle