Just eleven states hold gubernatorial elections in presidential years, and all but two are in safe states. In many cases, that means most of the drama unfolded — or will unfold — in the primaries, which are often tantamount to election. The remaining two in New Hampshire and North Carolina, however, could see barnburner races this fall.
Today, we’re releasing our gubernatorial ratings for the 2024 cycle. Unlike our House and Senate models, these ratings are not quantitative (mostly due to a lack of data). However, our assessments are informed by a variety of factors, including polling, fundraising, state fundamentals and partisanship, and advertising data.
In North Carolina, two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is retiring. The race to replace him has come down to Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson. Robinson has become infamous for promoting a variety of far-right ideas, and has made a number of controversial comments, particularly regarding LGBTQ+ rights, antisemitism, and abortion.
Although the Tar Heel State has remained stubbornly — albeit narrowly — Republican in most recent statewide races, it is far from an unwinnable state for Democrats. Roy Cooper is a testament to that, and the controversies surrounding Robinson continue to mount. The handful of polls conducted after Joe Biden dropped out suggest Stein is substantially ahead, including an eye-popping 10-point lead in The New York Times/Siena College’s most recent poll.
Although a Stein victory of that size would be unusual in perennially close North Carolina, Robinson’s history has drawn unflattering comparisons to disastrous GOP candidates such as Doug Mastriano. For now, Stein has a clear edge in polling and on the airwaves, and so we rate it Leans Democratic.
Much further to the north, New Hampshire is home to the governor’s mansion most likely to flip. Popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is retiring after four terms. Although New Hampshire may host the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, its state primaries are among the latest in the country; candidates will not be selected until September 10th.
On the Republican side, the handful of polls we have suggest former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte has a massive lead over former state senator Chuck Morse. The Democratic side is a face off between former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Craig appears to be favored, but not overwhelmingly so.
Assuming Ayotte wins the nomination, she will be attempting to mount a political comeback after her narrow loss to then-Gov. Maggie Hassan, who defeated Ayotte by just 1,017 votes in 2016. She re-enters a political world that has been vastly changed since her departure. Although she disavowed Trump in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape in 2016, she has endorsed him this time around, perhaps recognizing the peril of running in a Republican primary as an anti-Trump figure.
Kamala Harris has generally polled well in New Hampshire, a very pro-choice state packed with highly educated white voters. It is possible she matches, if not exceeds, Biden’s 7-point margin in the state. Even though New England is a region friendly to ticket splitting, a large Harris win in the Granite State may still be a tall order for Republicans to overcome in this situation.
That being said, polling has been very sparse; the few 2023 polls taken showed an Ayotte lead, but there has not been a single poll of the general election released in 2024, and it is possible that we won’t get one until after the September primary. Given that both parties are poised to nominate credible, well-resourced candidates, and given the absence of any recent polling at this point, we’d rate this a Toss Up (though we’d probably tilt to the Democrats if we were forced to choose a side).
Delaware, like New Hampshire, will hold its primaries on September 10th. Democratic Gov. John Carney is retiring. The two most likely names to replace him are current Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer, both Democrats. Polling has been limited, but the race appears to be competitive. Whoever emerges from the primary will likely cruise to victory this November; Joe Biden’s home state has not elected a Republican governor since 1988. This race is not competitive, and we’d rate it Safe Democratic.
Incumbent Republican governors in Montana, Utah, and Vermont will likely easily secure re-election this November. While Vermont is the bluest state in the country, Gov. Phil Scott may be the most popular governor in all 50 states. Scott has charted a moderate course and is blessed to govern a state that is no stranger to ticket-splitting, as he won with over 70% of the vote in 2022. All three states are rated Safe Republican.
Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia all feature departing Republican governors. In these safely red states, all rated as Safe Republican, the real election for their next governor took place in the Republican primary.
Indiana Senator Mike Braun chose to retire from the Senate and run for governor instead. Armed with Trump’s endorsement, he won the Republican primary and will face off against Jennifer McCormick, a former state Superintendent who switched parties in 2021.
Missouri’s Republican primary was a three-way battle between Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, and state senator Bill Eigel. Curiously, Trump chose to endorse all three candidates. Ashcroft led in most polls, but ended up placing third. Kehoe, who had secured Gov. Mike Parson’s endorsement, is set to be the state’s next governor.
North Dakota’s primaries were a sleepy affair; Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong cruised to victory with over 70% of the vote, and will face similarly low levels of resistance in the general election.
In West Virginia, state Attorney General Patrick Morrissey is poised to get a promotion after winning a contentious four-way Republican primary. Although Democrats won the governorship as recently as 2016, and though Morrissey himself lost a Senate race against Joe Manchin in 2018, he will face no difficulties winning this race in the fall against his Democratic opponent Steve Williams, the Huntington mayor and former state delegate.
Finally, in Washington, Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee chose to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. The state just held its “top-two” primary in early August, and Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson will face off against former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert this November. Reichert, who began his political career as Sheriff of Seattle’s King County, is a credible candidate. As a congressman, he represented a Democratic-leaning seat in the Seattle suburbs, where he often won re-election by comfortable margins, and early polls suggested that this race would be extremely close.
However, Reichert is fighting against partisanship, perhaps the most powerful force in modern politics. Democrats combined for 55% of the vote in the top-two primary, usually a reliable predictor of the general election, and this is a state Kamala Harris should win by double digits, at the minimum. Although Reichert’s crossover appeal is visible (the combined Republican vote adds up to 43% in the gubernatorial election, the highest of any of the statewide races), it won’t be enough to break the Democrats’ 40-year winning streak, and it remains Safe Democratic.
I am an analyst specializing in elections and demography, as well as a student studying political science, sociology, and data science at Vanderbilt University. I use election data to make maps and graphics. In my spare time, you can usually find me somewhere on the Chesapeake Bay. You can find me at @maxtmcc on Twitter.