Political battles over education are a tale as old as the government itself. From the creation of public schooling in the 1700s to clashes over book bans stretching into the modern era, education has been an ever-present force in American politics. It is also an issue that has long favored the Democratic Party, with polls consistently showing the public trusts them more on the issue.
In recent years, however, there has been talk of a shift. The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic led to school closures that thrust questions about governmental involvement in education into the public eye. Perhaps most notably, Republican Glenn Youngkin managed to flip the Governor’s office in Virginia after hammering his opponent’s position on parental involvement in schools. Republicans were excited by this potential breakthrough on an issue that had long been unfavorable to them, and attempted to implement the “Youngkin playbook” in the 2022 midterms. While it may be ultimately impossible to determine the degree to which this campaign resonated with voters, one potential way to measure the issue is to look at the offices it most directly impacts: elected state Superintendents.
The specific duties of elected Superintendents vary by state, but generally they oversee their states’ public school systems and the office is the elected position related most closely to educational issues. By comparing Superintendent election outcomes with our SHAVE House popular vote aggregate, we can determine if Democrats really do possess a “generic” advantage on education that consistently manifests — and whether this advantage waned in 2022.
There are some limitations to this approach. Firstly, although twelve states currently directly elect their state Superintendents, just eight of those list partisan affiliation on the ballot. It may be tempting to include the nonpartisan races in this analysis: after all, while the position is nominally nonpartisan, political parties often make their endorsements clear to voters. In some cases, these races can be nearly as high-profile as their partisan counterparts. However, the nonpartisan label can still skew voter perceptions at the ballot box, and consequently, comparing them directly to partisan races is a flawed metric at best. Take California’s most recent nonpartisan Superintendent election, in which Democrat-backed Tony Thurmond defeated Republican-backed Lance Christensen. Thurmond’s coalition broadly mirrored a Democratic one and he won by the widest margin on the ticket. However, he underperformed Democrats with partisan labels in some deep blue counties, an effect that is not unusual in nonpartisan elections but less common in partisan ones, likely because some voters rely on explicit labels.
Secondly, the eight states that elect Superintendents with partisan labels skew Republican; Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are the only states that are not solidly red on this list. Consequently, of the thirty elections measured across 12 years, Democrats emerged victorious in just four of them. This warrants caution given that the conclusions drawn below may be less applicable to blue states. Finally, SHAVE is a metric that utilizes House results: this is beneficial for estimating downballot environments, but it is not an isolated statistic, as it is also influenced by individual candidates in House races. Moreover, superintendents are elected at the state level, whereas House elections are for federal office, and there can often be small but meaningful differences in partisanship between the two. Any significant caveat with a state’s SHAVE metric is noted below.
With all of the above stipulations, Split Ticket finds a consistent, but potentially waning pattern of Democratic overperformances. Of the thirty partisan Superintendent elections from 2010 to 2022, Democratic candidates outperformed their House equivalents in 24 of them. Perhaps most notably, 16 of these Superintendent elections saw substantial Democratic overperformances of five points or more, with eleven being in the double-digits. By contrast, just one election saw a Republican overperformance exceeding five points, and none beyond ten. However, of the six Republican overperformances, three took place in 2022, including their largest overperformance in the dataset.
2010
This analysis begins in 2010, an abysmal year for Democrats across the nation. The six states that held Superintendent elections all voted for McCain two years prior, some by very large margins. As such, it may come as no surprise that Republicans swept these races; however, Democratic candidates still outran their House counterparts in all six. Their largest overperformance was in Wyoming, where they turned in a whopping 24-point overperformance.
2012
Results were considerably better for Democrats in the far more favorable environment of 2012. Democrats won all three Superintendent elections, turning in significant overperformances even as Obama lost their respective states at the top of the ticket. In North Carolina, Democratic Superintendent June Atkinson led the entire ticket.
2014
As with 2010, Democrats faced a similarly poor environment in 2014, but nevertheless saw overperformances in five of the six Superintendent elections. Unlike 2010, however, they also came very close to winning two races, losing by just over a point in both Arizona and Idaho.
In Idaho, Republican Sherri Ybarra came perilously close to losing despite her state’s deep red lean. Her 25-point underperformance is not the worst for Republicans in 2014, however; that distinction goes to Oklahoma. Republican Joy Hofmeister, who would end up switching parties to run unsuccessfully for Governor in 2022, charted a moderate course on education but nonetheless underperformed her House Republican counterparts by 31 points, the largest Democratic overperformance in any Superintendent race from 2010 to now.
2016
Democrats turned in another string of overperformances in 2016, even as all three positions flipped to Republicans. Indiana’s Democratic Superintendent, Glenda Ritz, lost re-election in what would prove to be the final Superintendent election in Indiana, overperforming House Democrats by 14 points. Republicans also flipped both North Carolina and Montana, although in the latter state, Democrat Melissa Romano was the best-performing statewide Democrat aside from incumbent Governor Steve Bullock.
2018
2018, the most favorable year for Democrats in this dataset, featured just four partisan Superintendent races; Wyoming and South Carolina’s Republican incumbents went uncontested. By far the most notable Democratic overperformance was in deep red Idaho, where Republican Sherri Ybarra once again only narrowly defeated her opponent. In Arizona, the strongest performing statewide Democrat was not Kyrsten Sinema in the Senate race, but rather Kathy Hoffman in the Superintendent election.
Results were more mixed elsewhere. Joy Hofmeister in Oklahoma just about matched her House Republican counterparts, while Richard Woods of Georgia outran them by a handful of points. Hofmeister, who faced off against her 2014 opponent, may have benefited from her more moderate veneer.
2020
With Indiana ceasing to hold Superintendent elections, 2020 featured just two races. Montana’s Republican incumbent, Elsie Arntzen, won the closest statewide race in the Treasure State. Republicans also saw no underperformance in North Carolina, a change from previous cycles.
2022
Republicans attempted to go on offense on education in 2022. Results were notably more mixed in this somewhat politically odd year, with Republicans overperforming in three of the six Superintendent races, but nevertheless still seeing substantial underperformances in two others. By far the biggest divergence from House results was in Oklahoma, where controversial Republican Ryan Walters won by just 14 points in a deeply red Sooner State. Walters ran a vocal campaign focused on culture war issues, such as LGBTQ+ student rights and critical race theory. He was also hammered for his support for school vouchers, which his opponents believed was damaging to rural public school funding. The salience of this issue may have been the strongest driver of Walters’ underperformance and was also a major issue in the Governor’s race, where Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt similarly underperformed by a large margin.
In another hotly contested race, incumbent Democrat Kathy Hoffman was very narrowly ousted in Arizona by Republican Tom Horne, himself a former Arizona Superintendent. Horne’s divisive campaign featured a plan to create a “critical race theory hotline” as well as a promise to ban bilingual education. Even in defeat, Hoffman outran her fellow House Democrats by about 2 points, although that comes with a caveat discussed below.
In Idaho, Sherri Ybarra’s tenure came to an end after she lost the Republican primary. Her successor did not suffer from the same massive underperformances that plagued Ybarra — indeed, she actually outran House Republicans by 3 points, a remarkable reversal from previous years. Similarly, Wyoming, which featured two large Democratic overperformances in both 2010 and 2020, saw no such bounce this year. Instead, Megan Degenfelder earns the unique distinction of being the only Republican from 2010 until now to have outran her House counterparts by more than 5 points.
In Georgia, incumbent Republican Richard Woods outperformed House Republicans by a nearly identical margin to his 2018 showing. Neighboring South Carolina, by contrast, saw a notable Democratic overperformance. Ellen Weaver, the victorious Republican, ran a campaign that utilized many of the same culture war themes seen in both Virginia and Oklahoma, criticizing critical race theory as “woke ideology.” Overall, like many of 2022’s results, Superintendent races were something of a mixed bag. It appears that Republicans were substantially less successful than Glenn Youngkin in weaponizing the issue, despite running on similar culture war themes. Democrats notably hammered Republicans in Oklahoma on the issue of school funding, which was much less present in Virginia but has led them to similar successes in places like Kansas.
The Democratic Party has turned in a very strong pattern of overperformances in these Superintendent races, with a number of years featuring Democratic Superintendent candidates all outrunning their House counterparts. It is also not uncommon for these candidates to be the strongest performing Democrats on the ticket. By contrast, the handful of Republican overperformances are smaller than 5 points, with just one exception in Wyoming’s 2022 race. Until 2022 it is relatively clear, then, that Democrats enjoyed a generic advantage in these races – and that advantage could occasionally balloon out to the tune of 20 to 30 points. It is possible that the issue of school funding, in particular, can create massive overperformances in red states, where dominant Republican majorities exert total control over education.
However, the question remains: did Republicans break through on education after 2021? The 2022 results are notably more mixed than previous years, but with just six elections it would be unwise to draw any hard conclusions. As mentioned earlier, Kathy Hoffman’s overperformance in Arizona should be weighed against the fact that several of her Democratic colleagues prevailed against similarly controversial opponents. That being said, no Republican in 2022 put up the same kind of massive overperformance that Democrats often enjoy. Indeed, one manifested that year in Oklahoma, where any potential growing Republican strength on education was likely more than neutralized by Ryan Walters’ controversial positions on education, especially regarding funding.
The Republican overperformances in 2022 could simply be statistical noise, or the beginning of a trend that shows a waning Democratic advantage in these races. Only time will tell, but even if the latter is true, both parties would be wise to note Oklahoma — voters remain perfectly willing to punish political extremity, as seen in education.
Methodological Notes
- Uncontested Superintendent races are not included.
- In 2018, South Carolina’s Superintendent election had a Democratic candidate withdraw after general election ballots were finalized. His name appeared on the ballot, but any votes cast for him were not displayed in election results.
- Data gathered from state boards of election and secretaries of state.
- Although eight states currently utilize partisan Superintendent elections, nine are included in this dataset; Indiana abolished its elected Superintendent position after 2016.
- Methodology for SHAVE can be found here.
I am an analyst specializing in elections and demography, as well as a student studying political science, sociology, and data science at Vanderbilt University. I use election data to make maps and graphics. In my spare time, you can usually find me somewhere on the Chesapeake Bay. You can find me at @maxtmcc on Twitter.