Methodology

  • All RV/LV polls from nonpartisan pollsters with a FiveThirtyEight rating of B- or better to be included in aggregate
  • Partisan pollsters and pollsters with a FiveThirtyEight rating below B- excluded
    • note that bipartisan polls are accepted, such as the ones jointly conducted by Impact Research (D) and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R). However, a poll from either of them individually would not be considered.
    • Pollsters with provisional grades of B/C are accepted, as there is at least a B in some part of the rating.
    • In the case of a joint collaboration (e.g. Fabrizio/Impact) with no 538 rating, the poll will be accepted if at least one of the agencies has an individual rating of a B- or better.
  • RV Polls receive 3/4 the weight of LV polls
  • 30% of the average is the raw average of polls whose last day in the field was within the last 7 days
  • 50% of the average is the raw average of polls whose last day in the field was within the last 14 days
  • 20% of the average is the raw average of polls whose last day in the field was within the last 21 days
  • If an agency polls more than once in a window for the same sponsor, only the most recent poll of the agency/sponsor pair is taken, so as to reduce the influence of trackers and not double-count them.
  • Data scraped from FiveThirtyEight

Note: This is not our forecast; those use many more things than a simple generic ballot average. This is also not a model. This is simply a tool that we have built to better inform readers and election watchers in a transparent and open manner about what nonpartisan pollsters say the electorate will be like in the coming cycle.

Data Table

PollsterDateSample SizeTypeDemGOP
Atlas Intel11/5-11/7863LV4750
YouGov/The Economist11/3-11/61071LV4849
Morning Consult/Politico11/4-11/52005RV4843
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (NBC)11/3-11/5786LV4847
Big Village11/2-11/4702LV5046
ABC News/Washington Post10/30-11/2708LV4850
Big Village10/31-11/2702LV5245
Ipsos/Reuters10/31-11/1453LV4846
YouGov/The Economist10/29-11/11099LV4949
Morning Consult/Politico10/28-10/312005RV4742
YouGov/Yahoo News10/27-10/311172RV4644
Morning Consult10/28-10/306974LV4646
Quinnipiac University10/26-10/302010RV4448
YouGov/CBS News10/25-10/281899LV4547
Marist College/NPR10/24-10/271469RV4646
Tufts University10/25-10/27642LV4847
Morning Consult10/25-10/277947LV4746
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact10/22-10/261500RV4446
Big Village10/24-10/26713LV5046
YouGov/The Economist10/22-10/251114LV4945
Morning Consult10/22-10/247947LV4846
Suffolk10/19-10/241000LV4549
Morning Consult/Politico10/21-10/232005RV4742
Morning Consult10/21-10/237800LV4845
Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight10/13-10/23937LV4948
Morning Consult10/18-10/207947LV4745
Emerson College10/18-10/191000RV4146
YouGov/The Economist10/16-10/181110LV4647
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (NBC)10/14-10/18797LV4748
YouGov/Yahoo News10/13-10/171209RV4644
Monmouth10/13-10/17756RV4450
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (CNBC)10/13-10/16800RV4648
Pew Research Center10/10-10/163993RV4140
YouGov/CBS News10/12-10/141753LV4547
Harris/Harvard10/12-10/132010LV4753
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company10/9-10/121206RV4441
Siena College/The New York Times10/9-10/12792LV4549
YouGov/The Economist10/8-10/111030LV4846
Pioneer Polling/Tarrance Group10/8-10/101208LV4647
Morning Consult/Politico10/7-10/92006RV4642
Morning Consult10/6-10/87947LV4745
Big Village10/5-10/7708LV5145
TIPP Insights10/5-10/71158RV4342
Morning Consult10/3-10/57947LV4845
YouGov/The Economist10/1-10/41042LV4746
Morning Consult/Politico9/30-10/22005RV4643
Morning Consult9/30-10/27923LV4944
Marist College/NPR9/27-9/291562RV4644
Morning Consult9/27-9/297947LV4944
YouGov/The Economist9/24-9/271055LV4647
YouGov/Yahoo News9/23-9/271138RV4541
Morning Consult9/24-9/267947LV4844
Morning Consult/Politico9/23-9/252005RV4543
Monmouth9/21-9/25750RV4547
Selzer9/20-9/25563LV4642
YouGov/CBS News9/21-9/231954LV4546
Emerson College9/20-9/211368LV4545
ABC News/The Washington Post9/18-9/21908LV4651
Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight9/6-9/19930LV4141
Marquette University9/7-9/141282RV4741
Siena College/The New York Times9/6-9/141399LV4746
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (NBC)9/9-9/131000RV4646
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company9/9-9/121201RV4441
Morning Consult/Politico9/9-9/112006RV4742
TIPP Insights9/7-9/91145RV4846
Big Village9/7-9/9857RV4641
Morning Consult9/6-9/87947LV4845
Harris/Harvard9/7-9/81854LV5149
YouGov/The Economist9/3-9/61337RV4438
YouGov/Yahoo News9/2-9/61244RV4540
Morning Consult9/3-9/57947LV4745
Morning Consult8/31-9/28631LV4745
Marist College/NPR8/29-9/11151RV4844
YouGov/The Economist8/28-8/301342RV4638
Morning Consult8/28-8/309377LV4845
Quinnipiac University8/25-8/291419RV4743
Morning Consult/Politico8/26-8/282007RV4742
Morning Consult8/25-8/278685LV4845
YouGov/CBS News8/24-8/261854LV4547
Big Village8/24-8/26848RV4841
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact8/17-8/251313RV4744
Emerson College8/23-8/241000RV4445
Morning Consult8/22-8/249291LV4745
YouGov/The Economist8/20-8/231318RV4439
YouGov/Yahoo News8/18-8/221188RV4539
Morning Consult8/19-8/219057LV4845
Morning Consult/Politico8/19-8/212005RV4742
YouGov/FiveThirtyEight8/10-8/211796LV4945
Morning Consult8/16-8/189203LV4844
YouGov/The Economist8/13-8/161331RV4539
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (NBC)8/12-8/161000RV4547
Morning Consult8/13-8/159301LV4744
Morning Consult/Politico8/12-8/142005RV4642
Pew Research Center8/1-8/146929RV4442
Morning Consult8/10-8/128693LV4745
Big Village8/10-8/12828RV4642
Morning Consult8/8-8/1010434RV4543
YouGov/The Economist8/7-8/91331RV4438
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company8/6-8/91002RV4141
Morning Consult8/5-8/710595RV4542
Morning Consult/Politico8/5-8/72005RV4443
TIPP Insights8/2-8/41182RV4646
YouGov/The Economist7/30-8/21325RV4439
Morning Consult7/30-8/110979RV4542
YouGov/Yahoo News7/28-8/11153RV4539
Monmouth7/28-8/1751RV4946
Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight7/21-8/1884LV3840
Morning Consult/Politico7/29-7/312006RV4543
YouGov/CBS News7/27-7/291537LV4345
Big Village7/27-7/29823RV4642
Harris/Harvard7/27-7/281885RV5050
Morning Consult7/24-7/261158RV4542
YouGov/The Economist7/23-7/261311RV4438
Suffolk7/22-7/251000RV4440
Morning Consult/Politico7/22-7/242006RV4541
Morning Consult7/21-7/2310354RV4442
Emerson College7/19-7/201078RV4445
Morning Consult7/18-7/2010763RV4542
Lake Research/Tarrance Group7/16-7/20800RV4846
YouGov/The Economist7/16-7/191278RV4340
Quinnipiac University7/14-7/181367RV4544
Morning Consult7/15-7/1810578RV4542
Morning Consult/Politico7/15-7/172005RV4541
Big Village7/13-7/15851RV4541
Morning Consult7/12-7/1410409RV4542
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company7/10-7/131001RV4144
YouGov/The Economist7/9-7/111304RV4340
Morning Consult7/9-7/1110712RV4542
YouGov/Yahoo News7/8-7/111262RV4339
Morning Consult/Politico7/8-7/102005RV4642
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (CNBC)7/7-7/10800RV4244
Siena College/The New York Times7/5-7/7849LV4344
Morning Consult7/3-7/513605RV4542
YouGov/The Economist7/2-7/51343RV4340
Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight6/27-7/5887LV3938
Big Village7/1-7/3827RV4742
Morning Consult6/30-7/211619RV4541
Harris/Harvard6/29-6/301311RV5050
Emerson College6/28-6/291271RV4346
YouGov/Yahoo News6/24-6/271237RV4538
Monmouth6/23-6/27910RV4648
Morning Consult6/24-6/2612130RV4442
Morning Consult/Politico6/24-6/252005RV4542
Marist College/NPR6/24-6/25868RV4841
Morning Consult6/21-6/2311782RV4443
Morning Consult6/18-6/2013506RV4442
Morning Consult/Politico6/17-6/202004RV4242
Big Village6/15-6/17836RV4442
Morning Consult6/15-6/177947RV4442
Suffolk6/12-6/151000RV4040
Morning Consult6/12-6/1411179RV4442
YouGov/Yahoo News6/10-6/131246RV4339
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company6/10-6/131002RV4447
Morning Consult/Politico6/10-6/122005RV4442
Morning Consult6/9-6/119332RV4342
Morning Consult6/6-6/89966RV4442
Quinnipiac University6/3-6/61413RV4146
Ipsos/FiveThirtyEight5/26-6/6711LV3542
Morning Consult/Politico6/4-6/52006RV4242
Morning Consult6/3-6/510527RV4443
Big Village6/1-6/3822RV4344
Morning Consult5/31-6/211847RV4443
Morning Consult5/28-5/3013249RV4342
Morning Consult5/25-5/2711966RV4342
Emerson College5/24-5/251148RV4245
Morning Consult5/22-5/2412867RV4443
Morning Consult/Politico5/20-5/222005RV4541
YouGov/Yahoo News5/19-5/221369RV4238
Big Village5/18-5/20825RV4343
Harris/Harvard5/18-5/191963RV4951
Morning Consult/Politico5/13-5/162005RV4442
Quinnipiac University5/12-5/161421RV4347
Morning Consult5/13-5/1511495RV4442
Marist College/NPR5/9-5/131213RV4742
Morning Consult5/10-5/1210501RV4342
Hart/Public Opinion Strategies (NBC)5/5-5/10790RV4646
Morning Consult5/7-5/912073RV4342
Morning Consult/Politico5/6-5/92005RV4442
Monmouth5/5-5/9751RV4350

If you would like to see what a high-quality aggregate that considers nonpartisan and partisan polls alike looks like, please visit FiveThirtyEight to look at their average. If you notice any errors, please DM @lxeagle17 and @SplitTicket_ on Twitter.

Ed. Note on the table: The Economist’s G. Elliott Morris recommended that the YouGov/Economist polls of May and June be disregarded due to a programming error in the polls that meant that the results were not actually proper generic ballot polls. Accordingly, as per the recommendation of The Economist’s lead correspondent, we have removed the affected polls due to the bug identified in the programming of the survey.