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  • About
  • Examining California’s “Blueshift”
    Examining California’s “Blueshift”

    Many observers falsely assume that California’s electorate gets uniformly bluer between primary and general elections, giving Democratic candidates an edge in competitive races at the congressional and legislative levels. Reality is more complicated than any statewide average admits. Shifts don’t just vary based on political environments; they’re also affected by different demographic and geographic characteristics…

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    Harrison Lavelle, arminthomas and Leon Sit

    March 18, 2023
  • Montana’s Reservations Lean Blue. They Could Get Bluer.
    Montana’s Reservations Lean Blue. They Could Get Bluer.

    Introduction Control of the United States Senate may hinge on Montana, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester is set to face what could be his toughest re-election bid. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, a fellow Montanan, is taking the effort to unseat Tester seriously. As Montana voted for Trump by over 15 points in…

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    arminthomas

    March 10, 2023
  • Our 2024 House Ratings
    Our 2024 House Ratings

    Republicans had an excellent chance to secure a comfortable House majority in 2022. The “out” party had gained seats in all but three midterms since 1862. Additionally, Democratic President Joe Biden suffered lower approval ratings throughout the cycle than Barack Obama had in November 2010, and only 23% of exit poll respondents rated the nation’s…

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    Harrison Lavelle

    March 8, 2023
  • How Do Young Independents Vote?
    How Do Young Independents Vote?

    In August of 2022, we published an analysis on the partisan affiliation of young voters. Our conclusion was that we were currently in the largest period of sustained age polarization in recent American political history, and that the extreme Democratic lean of young voters was a historical abnormality. But there’s something that we think is…

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    Lakshya Jain, Leon Sit and Jesse Richardson

    March 6, 2023
  • Can Southern Democrats Thread The Electoral Needle Again?
    Can Southern Democrats Thread The Electoral Needle Again?

    With the 2023 gubernatorial election cycle now kicking into full swing, Split Ticket is previewing and rating each election. We’ve already broken down the Kentucky gubernatorial race in a previous article, but today, we’ll be finishing off the set by discussing Mississippi and Louisiana. Mississippi If a poster child existed for “unpopular incumbent governor embroiled…

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    Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle and Clare Considine

    March 2, 2023
  • Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: Virginia
    Our 2023 Legislative Ratings: Virginia

    Today’s analysis offers preliminary ratings for the key House of Delegates and Senate races in Virginia. Last week, we gave our initial thoughts on fall legislative elections in New Jersey – where neither the Senate nor the Assembly is at risk of flipping to the Republicans. Keep an eye out for our 2023 gubernatorial ratings…

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    Harrison Lavelle

    February 28, 2023
  • Eastern Ohio’s 6th District May Decide the Future of Buckeye State Democrats Statewide
    Eastern Ohio’s 6th District May Decide the Future of Buckeye State Democrats Statewide

    The current wave of political realignment hitting the nation is breaking hard in Ohio. The exodus of working-class white voters from the Democratic Party has been most pronounced in the Buckeye State. Once a highly-competitive bellwether state, Ohio is now firmly red. Longtime hotbeds of blue strength in eastern Ohio along the Pennsylvania and West…

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    arminthomas

    February 27, 2023
  • World Report Special Edition: Nigeria
    World Report Special Edition: Nigeria

    This Saturday’s presidential election in Nigeria is a highly anticipated event that could shape wider global politics. As the elections near, it is important to understand the key voting blocs that could have a significant impact on the outcome. In this article, we will explore the five most important voting blocs in the upcoming election:…

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    Adrian Elimian

    February 24, 2023
  • Primary Recap: Wisconsin
    Primary Recap: Wisconsin

    Primary Recap Wisconsin voters decided the first round of this year’s nonpartisan state Supreme Court election on Tuesday. Judges Janet Protasiewicz (a liberal) and Dan Kelly (a conservative) will advance to a hotly-contested April general election in one of the nation’s top swing states.  Although Wisconsin Supreme Court candidates have no formal partisan affiliations, coalitions…

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    Harrison Lavelle, Lakshya Jain and Leon Sit

    February 23, 2023
  • Another State Supreme Court Battle Brews In Wisconsin
    Another State Supreme Court Battle Brews In Wisconsin

    Introduction Few states are as politically divided as Wisconsin, which voted for former President Trump in 2016 by a mere 23,000 votes, and for President Biden in 2020 by an even narrower 20-thousand vote margin. Federally, Wisconsin is one of just a handful of states that elected a bipartisan senate duo to Washington. In the…

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    Harrison Lavelle, Leon Sit and Lakshya Jain

    February 21, 2023
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