Category: House 2024
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How New England’s House Democrats Outperformed Kamala Harris
Ticket-splitting has hit record lows in recent years. In 2024, the number of “crossover districts” in the House dropped to just sixteen — with thirteen of them electing a Democrat to Congress despite voting for Trump. Growing political polarization has made it extraordinarily difficult for down-ballot candidates to draw from… Read More
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Democrats Claw Back Slim Edge In Race For House Control
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the House majority. Since then, the picture has changed substantially, especially after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the… Read More
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What Powered That Startling Democratic Overperformance in Ohio? Turnout.
The last positive electoral news for Democrats before President Biden’s lackluster debate performance came from a special election in Ohio’s 6th district on June 11th, where Democrat Michael Kripchak exceeded expectations in a contest to replace Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. The seat, which backed former President Trump by nearly 30… Read More
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Bowman vs Latimer: A New York Blockbuster
Congressman Jamaal Bowman is facing a strong primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer in New York’s 16th District. Despite national intra-party dynamics, local complications broaden the race beyond a simple clash between progressive and moderate Democrats. Differing electoral priorities of communities in Lower Westchester and the Bronx are… Read More
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How the 2024 House Elections Could Decide the Presidency
Imagine that it’s November 6th, 2024 and Americans nationwide are waking up to very unsettling news: neither candidate has hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, meaning the president must be chosen by the House of Representatives in a contingent election the following year. For most voters,… Read More
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Could Julia Letlow Win In A Majority-Black District?
The Supreme Court’s recent Milligan decision affirmed an order for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district. It also breathed life into a prominent Louisiana redistricting case: Ardoin v. Robinson. Last year, a district judge ruled that the state’s gerrymandered congressional map violated the VRA and ordered the creation of… Read More