Category: 2024 Ratings
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Our Final Forecast
President At the presidential level, our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning, and project her to win 270 electoral votes — at the moment, the “Blue Wall”… Read More
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The Case For (And Against) A Kamala Harris Victory
With just three days to go until election day, our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/26): Model Wars (And Is Early Voting Predictive?)
As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, Democratic fretting about the election continues to ramp up. Multiple news articles have documented the “vibe shift,” noting that some within the party have already begun to point fingers at those they believe will be responsible for a Harris loss. These… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/19): The Signal And The Noise
Our forecast this week sees Kamala Harris’ odds tick down a notch, from 55% to 53%. Readers may note that this marks the fourth straight week of decline from her peak of 62% when the model launched, which happened fresh off a debate that Harris was widely seen as having… Read More
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Temperature Check (10/12): What’s The Point Of A Model?
Today’s analysis of our model looks remarkably similar to last week’s, as well as the week preceding that one. Our presidential model gives Kamala Harris a 55% chance of winning the election. This is almost identical to the 57% chance our model gave her over the past two weeks. The… Read More
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Temperature Check (9/27): House, Senate, and Presidency
Between now and election day, we’ll be doing a series of weekly updates on the state of the race in the House, Senate, and Presidency. Our goal is to keep you informed on what our models say on a weekly basis about the evolving state of the race as the… Read More
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Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in… Read More
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Temperature Check: Democratic House Outlook Improves
In our last set of House updates, we noted that Democrats had emerged as favorites to win the election. Since then, their odds have only gotten better. Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority, which is the highest it has been since its inception. Our… Read More
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Temperature Check: Republicans Remain Favored To Flip Senate
Earlier this year, we introduced our quantitative Senate model. At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats; Democrats had the advantage in 48 states, with Ohio filling out the tossup category. Since then, the topline has remained the same — although… Read More