Lakshya Jain
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Temperature Check: Ohio Senate
Democrats won back the Senate in 2020 following historic victories in two hotly contested Georgia runoffs. Going into 2022, they had to hold Senate seats in three competitive Biden-won states to retain the majority (NV, AZ, and GA) — a difficult task for a party at the helm during a midterm.… Read More
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We Polled Young Voters. Here’s What We Found.
If you’ve followed any of the polling from this presidential election cycle, you’re probably aware of massive purported swings in the voting behavior of the youngest and oldest voters in the electorate portended by polling. Survey after survey shows Joe Biden gaining with seniors while cratering with young voters, whom… Read More
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Our NY-03 Special Election Preview
Today, voters will head to the polls to vote for a congressional representative to fill the vacancy created by former Representative George Santos’ expulsion. Both Republicans and Democrats expect a close race, given the extent of their recent investments in the district. With control of the House as narrow as… Read More
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Larry Hogan Faces An Impossible Challenge
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has recently announced a surprise run for the Old Line State’s open Senate seat. Hogan, a Trump critic who towed a moderate line, left office in 2023 as one of his state’s most popular governors in recent memory. Remarkably, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded… Read More
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For Once, Republicans Might Want A High Turnout Election
Entering 2020, it was nearly impossible to find a national poll that had Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump. Polling averages all showed every Democratic candidate leading the then-incumbent Republican president by several points, with the question being the size of the margin. Commentary discussed whether the Republicans even had a… Read More
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Democrats And The 2024 Senate Problem
Most coverage of the 2024 Senate elections frames the race for the majority as resting on a knife’s edge. The logic, on paper, is sound — after all, Republicans need to flip at least two seats to take full control at a time when an exceptionally weak nominee, with a… Read More
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Breaking Racial Polarization: A Case Study In The Deep South
The Upper Mississippi Delta region is home to some of the strongest and most intractable racial polarization anywhere in the country. Since the mass re-enfranchisement of black voters in the 1960s, white voters have overwhelmingly preferred Republicans while black voters have strongly backed Democrats. Long-term shifts driven by educational and… Read More
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What Happened In Mississippi?
On a night of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in the 2023 elections, Brandon Presley’s 3.2% loss in Mississippi’s gubernatorial election stands out. Facing an incumbent governor in a Trump +17 state in the Deep South, most had already written off the Presley campaign. Then, a catastrophic October Democratic underperformance in… Read More
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What Happened In 2023, And What Does It Mean For 2024?
It goes without saying that Democrats broadly exceeded pre-election expectations last Tuesday. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear won reelection comfortably, improving relative to his 2019 performance across the state. In Mississippi, challenger Brandon Presley came closer to winning the gubernatorial race than any Democrat since 1999. Their success wasn’t limited to… Read More