Lakshya Jain
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We Polled The Rust Belt. Here’s What We Found.
The national political climate has undergone a seismic shift since we polled the nation one month ago. On July 21st, the nation experienced a political earthquake when President Joe Biden, plagued by the fallout from his lackluster June debate performance, dropped out of the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris… Read More
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What Powered That Startling Democratic Overperformance in Ohio? Turnout.
The last positive electoral news for Democrats before President Biden’s lackluster debate performance came from a special election in Ohio’s 6th district on June 11th, where Democrat Michael Kripchak exceeded expectations in a contest to replace Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. The seat, which backed former President Trump by nearly 30… Read More
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We Polled Black Voters. Here’s What We Found.
Over the last several years, Black voters have been perhaps the most pivotal voting bloc fueling Joe Biden’s presidential aspirations. A core group of the Democratic Party, they comprise roughly 25% of its total voters, and it was Biden’s heavy margins with this group that powered him to the nomination… Read More
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We Polled The Nation. Here’s What We Found.
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by one point in a survey conducted by Split Ticket and Data For Progress. The poll was conducted online between July 1–3, 2024 with a sample size of N=2,067 likely voters, and was weighted to be representative of age, gender, education, race,… Read More
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The Case For (And Against) Joe Biden
Joe Biden’s abysmal showing in Thursday’s debate may well have been at the very top of the “worst case scenario” list for his campaign. It has sparked a firestorm of speculation regarding the viability of his candidacy and whether he should remain in the race, especially given his age and… Read More
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The Conviction Bounce
The 2024 presidential cycle has been defined by two things. The first is its length; in previous cycles, the matchup only became clear in March or April, but this time around, the scene was arguably already set by the beginning of the year. That means that this has been the… Read More
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Introducing Our 2024 House Model
The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups. Our… Read More
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Temperature Check: 2024 Presidential Election
With six months to go in the 2024 presidential election cycle and both nominees set, it’s worth re-examining the state of the race. Polls are now more relevant, given increasing proximity to the election. While the fundamentals of the race, which include the issue landscape, campaign cash levels, and candidate… Read More
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Chaos In The Crosstabs
Over the course of this election cycle, perhaps no single demographic has received more attention than young voters, which many polls now suggest to be increasingly Trump-curious. This has been observed alongside a similarly shocking swing toward Biden among elderly voters. If these surveys are correct, then our political landscape… Read More