Lakshya Jain
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Temperature Check (10/05): The Potential Illusion Of Stability
In a cycle characterized recently by immense upheaval, stability is perhaps the last thing that would come to mind regarding the 2024 elections. Yet for perhaps the first time in months, that is exactly what would characterize our forecasts right now. Coalitions are largely set (in fact, FiveThirtyEight’s crosstab aggregates… Read More
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Temperature Check (9/27): House, Senate, and Presidency
Between now and election day, we’ll be doing a series of weekly updates on the state of the race in the House, Senate, and Presidency. Our goal is to keep you informed on what our models say on a weekly basis about the evolving state of the race as the… Read More
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Our 2024 Presidential Model
When we released our last presidential update, the consensus was that Donald Trump was favored to win. Since President Biden’s departure from the race, however, the electoral picture has changed considerably. Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race ushered in a boom in Democratic enthusiasm and revitalized the party’s fortunes in… Read More
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Temperature Check: Democratic House Outlook Improves
In our last set of House updates, we noted that Democrats had emerged as favorites to win the election. Since then, their odds have only gotten better. Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority, which is the highest it has been since its inception. Our… Read More
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Temperature Check: Republicans Remain Favored To Flip Senate
Earlier this year, we introduced our quantitative Senate model. At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats; Democrats had the advantage in 48 states, with Ohio filling out the tossup category. Since then, the topline has remained the same — although… Read More
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Our 2024 Polling Aggregators (And How They Work)
With the election cycle in full swing and the electoral picture stabilizing, it can be easy to overreact to noise in individual polls and develop narratives around them. That’s why today at Split Ticket, we’re releasing our polling aggregates for 2024. Our hope is that you can use them to… Read More
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We Polled Nebraska (And Its Second District). Here’s What We Found.
It’s not often that much electoral attention finds its way to the Republican-dominated Great Plains, as the region only has a few remotely-competitive districts on the federal level. This year, however, Nebraska features three potentially-competitive races: the single electoral vote controlled by the state’s second congressional district (NE-02), the concurrent… Read More
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Our Senate Model: GOP-Friendly Map Dulls Candidate Quality Disasters
When we handicapped our initial Senate ratings, we noted that this cycle might finally be the year that the Class 1 Senate map (which held contests back in 2018, 2012, 2006, and so forth) turns on Democrats. Buoyed by uncharacteristic success in red-leaning states, and aided by a plethora of… Read More
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Democrats Claw Back Slim Edge In Race For House Control
When we introduced our House model in June, Republicans and Democrats were favored in 211 seats each with 13 districts counted as tossups. At the time, Republicans had a 56% chance of retaining the House majority. Since then, the picture has changed substantially, especially after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the… Read More