Viewing posts under:
Lakshya Jain
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Georgia Senate Runoff Preview
On Tuesday, Georgia voters will go to the polls for the Senate runoff election, which was triggered by no candidate getting an outright majority in the November general election. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock will face off against former UGA football star Herschel Walker, and with Warnock having led Walker in the first round 49.4–48.5…
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Candidate Quality Cost Statewide Republicans In 2022
Heading into the election, several national indicators pointed to the Republican Party likely having a fairly good night. Biden’s approval sat at 44%, the generic ballot sat at R+1.1, and inflation was still around 8%, with gas prices more expensive than they were during the red wave-esque environment of November 2021. One key problem for…
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A Final Note
With the 2022 election cycle coming to a close, we’ve made our final picks for Senate, House, and Governor. In line with historical midterm precedent, the predictions suggest that tonight’s results will benefit Republicans — though not overwhelmingly, as we’ll discuss later on. Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’…
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Our Final Senate Ratings
For the longest time, one of the biggest incongruities about this cycle was the divergence between national polling, which showed a close national environment, and the state polling, which showed a Democratic blowout in the battlegrounds. Our initial temptation was to explain this away through candidate quality, given that in Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania,…
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A Nonpartisan Generic Ballot Aggregator
It’s increasingly well accepted at this point that Democrats are on track to have a fairly bad year, at least in terms of the national popular vote. Their president’s approval rating is at 44%, the out-party shows serious enthusiasm, and inflation is at 8%. None of these things generally point to a remotely competitive race…
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Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?
For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and his opponent, Evan McMullin, is…
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Republicans Gain In Polling As Elections Approach
One of the weird things about this cycle is that in many ways, it truly is not like any other. President Joe Biden is at 44% approval with registered and likely voters, and yet the generic ballot and special election results indicate a tight national environment. Former president Donald Trump continues to command an unusually…
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What Does The Edge Of The Senate Battleground Look Like?
Ed Note: On Sunday, we published our breakdown of the four core Senate battleground states that are likeliest to decide the majority. Today, we look at the five states closer to the edges of our board: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado. WISCONSIN This was one of the initial races we moved towards…
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The Four Senate Races Likely To Decide The Majority
Ed Note: This will be part of a two-part article series breaking down the state of play in the race for control of the Senate. Part One today focuses on the four core battlegrounds that we believe will be the most tightly contested ones and will decide control of the chamber: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and…
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What’s Happening in South Dakota?
South Dakota is normally a red state. And by red, this means very red. Donald Trump won the state by 30 points in 2016 and by 26 points in 2020. In past eras of the New Deal and of the 1980s Farm Crisis, Democrats were more competitive, but today, South Dakota’s heavily white and rural…