Lakshya Jain
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Does Evan McMullin Have A Chance?
For the first time in nearly 50 years, Utah has a chance of sending someone other than a Republican to the U.S. Senate. A traditionally conservative state, Utah routinely elects Republicans by margins in excess of 30 points. But incumbent Senator Mike Lee is weaker than the average Republican, and… Read More
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Republicans Gain In Polling As Elections Approach
One of the weird things about this cycle is that in many ways, it truly is not like any other. President Joe Biden is at 44% approval with registered and likely voters, and yet the generic ballot and special election results indicate a tight national environment. Former president Donald Trump… Read More
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What Does The Edge Of The Senate Battleground Look Like?
Ed Note: On Sunday, we published our breakdown of the four core Senate battleground states that are likeliest to decide the majority. Today, we look at the five states closer to the edges of our board: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Colorado. WISCONSIN This was one of the… Read More
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The Four Senate Races Likely To Decide The Majority
Ed Note: This will be part of a two-part article series breaking down the state of play in the race for control of the Senate. Part One today focuses on the four core battlegrounds that we believe will be the most tightly contested ones and will decide control of the… Read More
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What’s Happening in South Dakota?
South Dakota is normally a red state. And by red, this means very red. Donald Trump won the state by 30 points in 2016 and by 26 points in 2020. In past eras of the New Deal and of the 1980s Farm Crisis, Democrats were more competitive, but today, South… Read More
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Could Michigan Democrats Break a 40 Year Losing Streak?
For a state that has voted for the Democratic candidate in 7 out of the last 8 presidential elections, Michigan has been relatively hostile to Democrats at the state legislative level. Thanks to a combination of favorable maps, political climates, organizational strength, and geography, Republicans have controlled the State Senate… Read More
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October Gubernatorial Ratings Changes
Since our last Split Ticket gubernatorial ratings update, a lot has changed in the political landscape. Accordingly, we are making ratings changes to reflect the updated pictures in the national and statewide political environments as the election nears. Our current ratings are listed below. Democrats are favored to win 21… Read More
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What’s Going On With Trafalgar’s Polls?
Over the last two presidential cycles, the Trafalgar Group rose to fame for its polling, which yielded better-than-average results for Republicans and indicated closer races for Donald Trump than many other outlets predicted. Trafalgar partly attributes those numbers to its “social desirability metric”, which the firm claims adjusts for respondents,… Read More