Harrison Lavelle
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Evaluating Sherrod Brown’s Path to Reelection
Senator Sherrod Brown has comfortably won three senate races and currently is the only Democratic statewide elected official in Ohio. His most recent reelection performance was impressive for a Trump-era Democrat in an increasingly-Republican state, but our 2018 WAR model suggests that it wasn’t particularly extraordinary. Brown overperformed by just… Read More
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Could Julia Letlow Win In A Majority-Black District?
The Supreme Court’s recent Milligan decision affirmed an order for Alabama to draw a second majority-Black district. It also breathed life into a prominent Louisiana redistricting case: Ardoin v. Robinson. Last year, a district judge ruled that the state’s gerrymandered congressional map violated the VRA and ordered the creation of… Read More
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Presidential Elections And The Economy
Historically, voters have punished or rewarded presidents at the polls for their perceived handling of the nation’s economy — Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 are two excellent examples of this effect from both ends of the spectrum. While this sentiment has arguably been misplaced at times,… Read More
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America and the Affirmative Action Debate
Last month, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College, holding that race-based affirmative action programs in college admissions violate both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The decision, which also covered… Read More
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The DeSantis Decline
After former President Donald Trump led a hand-picked slate of candidates to defeat in 2022, many Republicans sought a fresh face to lead the conservative movement. For some members of the GOP establishment, the ideal candidate was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In him they saw a younger, sharper version of… Read More
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The Milligan Decision: What Does It Mean for Alabama Redistricting?
On June 8th, the Supreme Court handed down a 5-4 decision in Allen v. Milligan, finding that Alabama’s current congressional map likely violates the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The decision paves the way for a second majority-black district in the state. More importantly, the Court held that the VRA… Read More
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How Much Does Early Presidential Polling Matter?
Donald Trump’s “MAGA” movement is arguably more unpopular than ever before, with only 24% of the electorate (and 12% of independents) viewing it favorably. But if you looked at the 2024 presidential polls for a Biden-Trump rematch, you probably wouldn’t be able to figure that out. Virtually every polling aggregation… Read More
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Does Trump’s Indictment Change Anything?
Last week, the Department of Justice indicted former President Donald Trump on 37 counts relating to his illegal retention of classified documents. Despite the possibility of conviction and his unpopularity among the general electorate, Trump remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination, and polls suggest that his latest scandal… Read More
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New York City’s Changing Coalitions
New York City is the most diverse city in the world and its electoral coalitions follow these sectional lines. Because voters with similar identities often share political preferences, understanding demographic change helps explain the coalition changes in New York City across forty years: between the 1984 and 2020 presidential elections.… Read More